614 Red Oak Woods · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$285,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1970 0.32 ac lot $330/sqft · 18% above area Est $437k · 35% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• Peek-a-boo view
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PEEK-A-BOO VIEW
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (42.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,721 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,147
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -34.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-85,466
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-137,534
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,491/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $189,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-379	-5% $-460	+0% $-541	+5% $-621	+10% $-702
Rent	-10% $-670	-5% $-605	+0% $-541	+5% $-476	+10% $-411
Rate	-1.0pp $-397	-0.5pp $-468	base $-541	+0.5pp $-614	+1.0pp $-690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5071 FM 2673 Canyon Lake, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,400	$1.66	4d	4	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,500 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,500 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,500 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $299,500 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $299,500 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $299,500

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

18. 2026-03-07
    listed $310,000 Active 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

19. 2026-03-05
    listed $310,000 New 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

20. 2026-03-05
    listed $310,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot in the desirable The Oaks community, this beautifully rebuilt home offers comfort, charm, and a glimpse of Canyon Lake from the balcony. Reconstructed in 2022, the property provides peace of mind with major updates including a new roof, HVAC system, septic system, and exterior siding. Designed with functionality and everyday living in mind, the home features an open-concept floorplan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Large windows allow natural light to fill the space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. A bedroom on the main level adds flexibility to the layout. Upstairs, additional living space and access to the balcony provide the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the peek-a-boo view of the lake, offering a peaceful reminder of the nearby waterfront lifestyle. The property also includes a detached two-car garage, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop space. The generous corner lot offers mature trees and outdoor space to enjoy the natural surroundings. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake, residents can easily take advantage of boating, fishing, swimming, and outdoor recreation. Everyday conveniences are close by as well, with shopping, dining, and local amenities only a short drive away.

21. 2026-02-27
    historical
22. 2026-01-14
    price $310,000
23. 2025-10-10
    price $324,995
24. 2025-06-28
    listed $329,000 New
25. 2021-08-20
    soldstatus
26. 1997-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,491 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,724/yr (+$227/mo · 109.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,491
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$11,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $299,500 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $299,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $299,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $310,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $310,000 LERA
• 2026-03-05 Listed $310,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $310,000 LERA
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $324,995 LERA
• 2025-06-28 Listed $329,000 LERA
• 2021-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,491 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.