8521 Candlebrush Dr · Bunnlevel, NC 28356

$129,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $110k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two full-bath home offering comfort, space, and incredible potential. With some updating, this property could truly shine and become something special. The home features a functional layout with generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing plenty of space for family living or guests. Large decks at both the front and back of the home create ideal areas for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying your morning coffee outdoors. Situated on a large yard, the property offers ample room for gardening, pets, play, or future enhancements. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build equity or an investor seeking your next project, this home p

Key facts

• Large yard
• Large decks
• Functional layout

Tags

• LARGE DECKS
• LARGE YARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Woodland Run subdivision
• Financial info: Details not provided
• HOA & community: Details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 5 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.5% in Bunnlevel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#676 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #349 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 442 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $129k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.89%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8517 Appleridge Dr Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	17mo	$115,000	$106	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $110,294
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.12×
• Total profit: $293,279
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28356

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,155/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    status Active
17. 2026-04-02
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 1993-08-26
    soldstatus $46,000
20. 1986-10-03
    soldstatus $40,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,155
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $5,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $6,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bunnlevel

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #676
• US rank: #24624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,747

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.02%
• Current HPI: 289.2973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+219.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,000 LPRMLS
• 1993-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $40,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,155 · +115.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.