31 Lake Fairgreen Cir · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,041 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 340 Days on market

Built 1986 9,240 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled along the Third Fairway of Hidden Lakes Golf Course, one of the area’s most desirable golf course neighborhoods, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space. Enjoy golf course views from the spacious family room, living room and primary suite. Large windows throughout allow for natural light and tranquil views. The generous primary suite has an en-suite bath and two walk-in closets. The functional floor plan includes formal living and dining areas, a spacious family room, and a well-proportioned kitchen, all designed to accommodate both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedrooms with ample closet storage, and an indoor laundry room off of the over sized two-car garage further enhance the home’s practical appeal. Built in 1986, this home has been well cared for by its original owners and provides a classic layout ready for your personal updates and renovations. Recent upgrades include a new roof in 2022, new HVAC and Electrical Panel in 2023, and a whole house Air Purifier in 2025. The kitchen also has newer microwave, dishwasher, faucet and garbage disposal. The clubhouse facilities and restaurants are easily accessible – only a golf cart ride away! The Homeowner’s Association provides lawn sprinklers and maintenance of common areas. This home is just 5 miles from the sandy shores of New Smyrna Beach, less than 20 miles from Daytona Beach & Daytona International Speedway and less than 50 miles from Kennedy Space Center.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Newer microwave
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• WHOLE HOUSE AIR PURIFIER
• NEWER MICROWAVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($435/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 607 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $315k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,771 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-41,949
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,166
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32168

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 607
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,114/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,512

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $125	+0% $36	+5% $-53	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-65	+0% $36	+5% $137	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $116	base $36	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 Citrus Open Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,600	$1.43	25d	1	0.25mi
527 Terriere Way New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	13d	1	0.87mi
700 Green Rd New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,995	$1.17	13d	1	0.97mi
618 N Duss St New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	21d	1	1.16mi
554 Ronnoc Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1762	$2,800	$1.59	25d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: trashelectric

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $315,000 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 335 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 334 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 329 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 328 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 322 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 321 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 320 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 319 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 318 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $315,000 1537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1537 chars)

    Nestled along the Third Fairway of Hidden Lakes Golf Course, one of the area’s most desirable golf course neighborhoods, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space. Enjoy golf course views from the spacious family room, living room and primary suite. Large windows throughout allow for natural light and tranquil views. The generous primary suite has an en-suite bath and two walk-in closets. The functional floor plan includes formal living and dining areas, a spacious family room, and a well-proportioned kitchen, all designed to accommodate both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedrooms with ample closet storage, and an indoor laundry room off of the over sized two-car garage further enhance the home’s practical appeal. Built in 1986, this home has been well cared for by its original owners and provides a classic layout ready for your personal updates and renovations. Recent upgrades include a new roof in 2022, new HVAC and Electrical Panel in 2023, and a whole house Air Purifier in 2025. The kitchen also has newer microwave, dishwasher, faucet and garbage disposal. The clubhouse facilities and restaurants are easily accessible – only a golf cart ride away! The Homeowner’s Association provides lawn sprinklers and maintenance of common areas. This home is just 5 miles from the sandy shores of New Smyrna Beach, less than 20 miles from Daytona Beach & Daytona International Speedway and less than 50 miles from Kennedy Space Center.

18. 2026-03-10
    price $335,000 1537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1537 chars)

    Nestled along the Third Fairway of Hidden Lakes Golf Course, one of the area’s most desirable golf course neighborhoods, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space. Enjoy golf course views from the spacious family room, living room and primary suite. Large windows throughout allow for natural light and tranquil views. The generous primary suite has an en-suite bath and two walk-in closets. The functional floor plan includes formal living and dining areas, a spacious family room, and a well-proportioned kitchen, all designed to accommodate both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedrooms with ample closet storage, and an indoor laundry room off of the over sized two-car garage further enhance the home’s practical appeal. Built in 1986, this home has been well cared for by its original owners and provides a classic layout ready for your personal updates and renovations. Recent upgrades include a new roof in 2022, new HVAC and Electrical Panel in 2023, and a whole house Air Purifier in 2025. The kitchen also has newer microwave, dishwasher, faucet and garbage disposal. The clubhouse facilities and restaurants are easily accessible – only a golf cart ride away! The Homeowner’s Association provides lawn sprinklers and maintenance of common areas. This home is just 5 miles from the sandy shores of New Smyrna Beach, less than 20 miles from Daytona Beach & Daytona International Speedway and less than 50 miles from Kennedy Space Center.

19. 2026-01-20
    price $359,000 1537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1537 chars)

    Nestled along the Third Fairway of Hidden Lakes Golf Course, one of the area’s most desirable golf course neighborhoods, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space. Enjoy golf course views from the spacious family room, living room and primary suite. Large windows throughout allow for natural light and tranquil views. The generous primary suite has an en-suite bath and two walk-in closets. The functional floor plan includes formal living and dining areas, a spacious family room, and a well-proportioned kitchen, all designed to accommodate both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedrooms with ample closet storage, and an indoor laundry room off of the over sized two-car garage further enhance the home’s practical appeal. Built in 1986, this home has been well cared for by its original owners and provides a classic layout ready for your personal updates and renovations. Recent upgrades include a new roof in 2022, new HVAC and Electrical Panel in 2023, and a whole house Air Purifier in 2025. The kitchen also has newer microwave, dishwasher, faucet and garbage disposal. The clubhouse facilities and restaurants are easily accessible – only a golf cart ride away! The Homeowner’s Association provides lawn sprinklers and maintenance of common areas. This home is just 5 miles from the sandy shores of New Smyrna Beach, less than 20 miles from Daytona Beach & Daytona International Speedway and less than 50 miles from Kennedy Space Center.

20. 2025-07-16
    listed $369,000 Active 1537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1537 chars)

    Nestled along the Third Fairway of Hidden Lakes Golf Course, one of the area’s most desirable golf course neighborhoods, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space. Enjoy golf course views from the spacious family room, living room and primary suite. Large windows throughout allow for natural light and tranquil views. The generous primary suite has an en-suite bath and two walk-in closets. The functional floor plan includes formal living and dining areas, a spacious family room, and a well-proportioned kitchen, all designed to accommodate both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedrooms with ample closet storage, and an indoor laundry room off of the over sized two-car garage further enhance the home’s practical appeal. Built in 1986, this home has been well cared for by its original owners and provides a classic layout ready for your personal updates and renovations. Recent upgrades include a new roof in 2022, new HVAC and Electrical Panel in 2023, and a whole house Air Purifier in 2025. The kitchen also has newer microwave, dishwasher, faucet and garbage disposal. The clubhouse facilities and restaurants are easily accessible – only a golf cart ride away! The Homeowner’s Association provides lawn sprinklers and maintenance of common areas. This home is just 5 miles from the sandy shores of New Smyrna Beach, less than 20 miles from Daytona Beach & Daytona International Speedway and less than 50 miles from Kennedy Space Center.

21. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus $112,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$500/yr (+$42/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,114
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,455
• − Management: −$2,455
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $1,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,847
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1139.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.58%
• Current HPI: 350.4259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,114 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.