510 Nob Hill Ln · Seven Points, TX 75143

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2005 10,019 sqft lot $127/sqft · 17% below area Est $240k · 17% under $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The gorgeous lake view and the constant breeze on the covered 10X20 front deck of this water view home overlooking Cedar Creek Lake is breath taking. Updated 4/2 split floor plan home with open kitchen and living room for entertaining will make the perfect home on the lake. Fenced in back yard is perfect for your pets with a storage shed for your outdoor toys. Neighborhood has a boat ramp and a park. This one won't last long. Call for showing!

Key facts

• New retaining wall
• Walk-in closet
• New hvac

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• NEW HVAC
• NEW RETAINING WALL
• LEAFGUARD GUTTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, and FHA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Oak Landing); Annual HOA fee; Association covers full use of facilities; Community boat ramp

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; No garage or covered/carport spaces
• Utilities: City sewer; Co-op electric; MUD water; Located in a Municipal Utility District (MUD)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Deed restrictions
• Construction: Built in 2005; Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Chain link fencing; Few trees; Water/lake view; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Ice maker; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High speed internet available; Wainscoting; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; Total of 7 rooms; One level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.1% in Seven Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,063 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kemp ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #605 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kemp Pri (503 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 54% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.14%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,479
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -16.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Sacremento Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+4%)	2mo	$110,000	$68	71
517 Pine St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+11%)	6mo	$150,000	$86	62
1040 Red Bird	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	13mo	$65,000	$46	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $21,541
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $88,366
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,144/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,779

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1340 E Cedar Creek Pkwy Kemp, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,850	$2.14	43d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $199,900 Active 1064-char remark
16. 2021-08-06
    soldstatus
17. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    The gorgeous lake view and the constant breeze on the covered 10X20 front deck of this water view home overlooking Cedar Creek Lake is breath taking. Updated 4/2 split floor plan home with open kitchen and living room for entertaining will make the perfect home on the lake. Fenced in back yard is perfect for your pets with a storage shed for your outdoor toys. Neighborhood has a boat ramp and a park. This one won't last long. Call for showing!

18. 2021-06-12
    listed $152,500 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    The gorgeous lake view and the constant breeze on the covered 10X20 front deck of this water view home overlooking Cedar Creek Lake is breath taking. Updated 4/2 split floor plan home with open kitchen and living room for entertaining will make the perfect home on the lake. Fenced in back yard is perfect for your pets with a storage shed for your outdoor toys. Neighborhood has a boat ramp and a park. This one won't last long. Call for showing!

19. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus
20. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Come view today! This Four bdrm, Two bath home sits on the hill with wonderful Water Views! Split bedroom floorplan; Large master bedroom has walk-in closet; Open Living, Kitchen, Dining area is great for entertaining! Chainlink Fenced backyard with storage building. Lots of parking with driveway and a circle drive! Relax on your 10X20 covered front porch with a tall glass of sweet tea and enjoy the views of Cedar Creek Lake! Neighborhood has boat ramp and park. Call for a showing!

21. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Come view today! This Four bdrm, Two bath home sits on the hill with wonderful Water Views! Split bedroom floorplan; Large master bedroom has walk-in closet; Open Living, Kitchen, Dining area is great for entertaining! Chainlink Fenced backyard with storage building. Lots of parking with driveway and a circle drive! Relax on your 10X20 covered front porch with a tall glass of sweet tea and enjoy the views of Cedar Creek Lake! Neighborhood has boat ramp and park. Call for a showing!

22. 2020-12-11
    status Pending
23. 2020-11-03
    historical Active Contingent
24. 2020-09-23
    status Active
25. 2020-09-14
    historical Active Option Contract
26. 2020-07-06
    listed $125,000

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Come view today! This Four bdrm, Two bath home sits on the hill with wonderful Water Views! Split bedroom floorplan; Large master bedroom has walk-in closet; Open Living, Kitchen, Dining area is great for entertaining! Chainlink Fenced backyard with storage building. Lots of parking with driveway and a circle drive! Relax on your 10X20 covered front porch with a tall glass of sweet tea and enjoy the views of Cedar Creek Lake! Neighborhood has boat ramp and park. Call for a showing!

27. 2020-07-03
    listed $125,000 Active
28. 2020-04-02
    historical
29. 2019-12-11
    price $140,000
30. 2019-12-04
    listed $150,000 Active
31. 2018-02-15
    soldstatus
32. 2018-02-06
    soldstatus
33. 2017-12-01
    listed $89,500
34. 2017-10-27
    historical
35. 2017-10-25
    status Active
36. 2017-09-03
    status Pending
37. 2017-04-14
    status Active
38. 2017-04-08
    status Pending
39. 2017-03-13
    listed $100,000 Active
40. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus
41. 1999-09-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,144
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $7,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,783
• After-tax cash flow: $8,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kemp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825320
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,788
• Composite: 26.37/100
• National rank: #7233
• State rank: #605 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seven Points

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seven Points, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2021-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-06-12 Listed $152,500 GTAR
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2020-12-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-11-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-09-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2020-09-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-07-06 Listed $125,000 HCBOR
• 2020-07-03 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-12-11 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2019-12-04 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2018-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-06 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2017-12-01 Listed $89,500 HCBOR
• 2017-10-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-10-25 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2017-09-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-04-14 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2017-04-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-03-13 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2005-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,144 · +22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.