Arbor Plan · Navarre, FL 32566

$284,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 314 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Arbor Floorplan - 3-Bedroom New Construction Home with Covered Outdoor Living Discover the Arbor floorplan from Holiday Builders' Value Collection, a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering 1,568 square feet of living space, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an attached 2-car garage. With an open-concept great room, spacious kitchen island, separate dining room, and covered outdoor living area, the Arbor combines comfort, functionality, and modern finishes in a home designed for everyday living. Open-Concept Great Room and Spacious Kitchen Step through the covered front entry into a welcoming foyer with a convenient storage closet.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Expansive kitchen
• Kitchen island

Tags

• COVERED FRONT ENTRY
• SPACIOUS OPEN LIVING AREA
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,266.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Intermediate School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 813 students, 37% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1240 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 107d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,494 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,266
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -17.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1860 Sparrow Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+4%)	9mo	$335,000	$205	76
1963 Sunrise Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+11%)	7mo	$405,000	$233	72
6958 Elliots Gin Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+12%)	6mo	$375,000	$214	62
2167 Sunrise Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+4%)	7mo	$385,000	$237	60
1912 Candlewood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-6%)	12mo	$325,000	$219	59
1848 Iris Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-9%)	12mo	$346,500	$242	56
1394 Sound Retreat Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,471 (-6%)	5mo	$349,900	$238	52
2038 Shannon Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+7%)	7mo	$380,000	$227	51
1836 Iris Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-10%)	14mo	$335,000	$238	51
1833 Eagle Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	2mo	$300,000	$212	48
1863 Eagle Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-11%)	7mo	$345,000	$247	43
6912 Leisure St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+14%)	9mo	$390,000	$218	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-95,717
• Equity at exit: $51,779

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-135,696
• Equity at exit: $30,025

Cash invested: $97,235 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $342,500 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 1240
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,209/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,038

Max offer price $258,915

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-371	-5% $-491	+0% $-611	+5% $-731	+10% $-851
Rent	-10% $-790	-5% $-700	+0% $-611	+5% $-521	+10% $-432
Rate	-1.0pp $-436	-0.5pp $-522	base $-611	+0.5pp $-701	+1.0pp $-792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,817
• Closing costs: $10,418
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,200	$1.13	155d	1	0.28mi
1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,250	$1.16	164d	1	0.28mi
6952 Cotton Boll Ln Navarre, FL	4.0	2.0	1898	$2,195	$1.16	164d	1	0.33mi
7036 Sawfish St Navarre, FL	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,395	$1.14	2d	1	0.55mi
6637 Water St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,050	$1.47	164d	1	0.67mi
6635 Water St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,050	$1.47	164d	1	0.67mi
6622 Perch St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,100	$1.34	164d	1	0.70mi
7205 Antoinette Cir Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1804	$2,170	$1.20	10d	1	0.79mi
7160 Blue Jack Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,595	$1.20	164d	1	0.88mi
1827 Sundown Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	164d	1	0.90mi
1855 Lindsey Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	2124	$2,695	$1.27	155d	1	1.13mi
2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,175	$1.15	155d	1	1.13mi
2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,175	$1.15	164d	1	1.13mi
1719 Sound Haven Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,095	$1.49	11d	1	1.14mi
1719 Sound Haven Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,045	$1.46	0d	1	1.14mi
1717 Sound Haven Ct Navarre, FL	3.0	3.0	1396	$1,905	$1.36	107d	1	1.15mi
6465 Starfish Cv Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,795	$1.43	47d	1	1.22mi
7381 Navarre Pkwy Navarre, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,170	$2.20	0d	19	1.35mi
7434 Harvest Village Ct Unit B Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,500	$1.32	50d	1	1.39mi
6539 Forest Bay Ave Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,500	$1.40	10d	1	1.40mi
7412 Harvest Village Ct Unit 7412 Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	10d	1	1.40mi
2562 Holley Pl Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,370	$1.19	10d	1	1.47mi
2426 Houston Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,500	$1.70	164d	1	1.49mi
7457 Harvest Village Ct Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	10d	1	1.50mi
7457 Harvest Village Ct Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	2004	$1,550	$0.77	45d	1	1.50mi
7457 Harvest Village Ct Unit 7457 Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	31d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $284,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction planModel name: Arbor
• Exterior features: Living area of 1568 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: ArborActive listing status

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $284,990 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $284,990 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $284,990 Active 308 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $284,990 Active 307 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 306 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 298 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 297 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 296 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 295 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 294 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 293 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $284,990 Active 292 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 291 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 290 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 289 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 288 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $284,990 Active 287 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $284,990 Active 286 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $284,990 Active 285 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $284,990 Active 284 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $284,990 Active 283 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $284,990 Active 282 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $284,990 Active 281 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 280 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 279 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 278 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 277 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 276 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $284,990 Active 275 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 274 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 273 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 272 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 270 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 269 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 268 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 267 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 266 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 265 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 264 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 263 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,452
• − Property taxes: −$5,209
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$10,102
• Taxable loss: −$13,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,840–$23,520 screening

This home presents as move-in ready with good condition and curb appeal. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary West Navarre Intermediate School A- FL #345/2,144 Nat'l #3,382/41,679 Middle Woodlawn Beach Middle School B+ FL #105/571 Nat'l #1,362/14,009 High Navarre High School C- FL #146/667 Nat'l #4,818/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Navarre

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #7790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navarre, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
• City population: 43,883
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $284,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction planModel name: Arbor
• Exterior features: Living area of 1568 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: ArborActive listing status