155 Water Ave · Olive Hill, KY 41164

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Est $99k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

155 Water Avenue, Olive Hill, KY 41164 Fully remodeled cozy cottage overlooking Tygart Creek in Olive Hill. This 900+ square foot home has been completely renovated, and every inch is used to its fullest potential. There are two bedrooms, one bathroom, a living room, an open concept dining room/kitchen, and a large master walk-in closet with a hookup for a stacked laundry unit. New Upgrades include: - Vinyl siding, soffit, fascia - Gutters - 14 Jeld-Wen windows - Custom wood shutters - Custom wrapped porch posts and beams - Exterior lighting - Custom retaining wall - Freshly poured concrete sidewalk - All NEW drywall and ceilings - Luxury vinyl plank flooring - Exterior doors - Interior doo

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Electric fireplace
• Custom wood shutters

Tags

• OVERLOOKING TYGART CREEK
• FULLY REMODELED
• CUSTOM WOOD SHUTTERS
• CUSTOM RETAINING WALL
• NATURAL GAS FIREPLACE
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($594/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Olive Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#160 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $99,002 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,264
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Sparks Ave Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+1%)	10mo	$100,000	$88	70
133 Kelli St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+6%)	3mo	$105,000	$88	59
720 E Waugh Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,264 (+12%)	5mo	$165,000	$131	43
190 Mills Br	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,282 (+14%)	22mo	$89,500	$70	40
143 Morgan Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+13%)	13mo	$229,900	$181	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,290
• Equity at exit: $42,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $31,708
• Equity at exit: $56,410

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41164

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $85	+0% $49	+5% $14	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $10	+0% $49	+5% $89	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $81	base $49	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$775/yr (+$65/mo · 258.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Olive Hill

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #8044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olive Hill, KY
• Population (ZIP): 12,372

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 288.8744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $300 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.