401 E Mesa Dr · Hobbs, NM 88241

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1957 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom brick home is located on a corner lot. Home has a bonus room off of the back from a former enclosed patio. Carved wood floors in the kitchen area with a wall oven, range top, and refrigerator. Home has a tankless hot water heater and a walk-in tub. There is a water softener serviced through Water Processing. Metal fascia & soffit; 2 car garage and an additional 2 car carport. The freezer in the garage will stay. Come take a look at this property with so much to offer and waiting for you to make it yours.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#37 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hobbs Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #45 of 95 in NM (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Lea County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lea County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.21%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $58,912
• Equity at exit: $98,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $164,302
• Equity at exit: $152,450

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88241

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,549/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
211 E Alto Dr Hobbs, NM	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,400	$1.16	43d	1	0.10mi
1107 E La Brea Ave Hobbs, NM	4.0	2.0	1900	$3,200	$1.68	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 2022-06-15
   soldstatus 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Three bedroom brick home is located on a corner lot. Home has a bonus room off of the back from a former enclosed patio. Carved wood floors in the kitchen area with a wall oven, range top, and refrigerator. Home has a tankless hot water heater and a walk-in tub. There is a water softener serviced through Water Processing. Metal fascia & soffit; 2 car garage and an additional 2 car carport. The freezer in the garage will stay. Come take a look at this property with so much to offer and waiting for you to make it yours.

4. 2022-05-06
   listed $209,900 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Three bedroom brick home is located on a corner lot. Home has a bonus room off of the back from a former enclosed patio. Carved wood floors in the kitchen area with a wall oven, range top, and refrigerator. Home has a tankless hot water heater and a walk-in tub. There is a water softener serviced through Water Processing. Metal fascia & soffit; 2 car garage and an additional 2 car carport. The freezer in the garage will stay. Come take a look at this property with so much to offer and waiting for you to make it yours.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,760 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,549
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $2,711
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$651
• After-tax cash flow: $5,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hobbs Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501260
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 31% —
• Median HH income: $52,575
• Composite: 24.53/100
• National rank: #13068
• State rank: #45 of 95 in NM

Livability — Hobbs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #11817

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hobbs, NM

Population outlook (Lea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,268 people
• By 2030: 91,695 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 108,366 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 126,264 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 170,606 · +102.5%
• By 2100: 199,235 · +136.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $220,000 NMMLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed $209,900 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,549 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.