184 Empire Ave #62 · Fortuna, CA 95540

$38,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 167 Days on market

Built 1986 ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller is motivated! This three bedroom two bath manufactured home needs a new roof and some TLC but it has good bones. Located on a corner lot in convenient senior park in Fortuna. The extra bedrooms provide plenty of space for visitors, hobbies or home office. Mature landscaping provides a pleasing atmosphere and wheelchair lift adds convenience and practicality. The forced air heater was replaced by current owner as well as the carpet. Close to shopping, medical services and public transportation.

Key facts

• Medical services
• Forced air heater
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• FORCED AIR HEATER
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• MEDICAL SERVICES
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts, circuit breakers, 220 volts in laundry); Natural gas connected / available
• Home design: Residential single family home; Single-story mobile home (Fleetwood Berkshire); Located in Royal Crest mobile park; Corner/fronting Monarch and Empire
• Construction: Aluminum and wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Partial fencing; Outbuilding; Insulation (energy efficient); Accessible entrance; Corner lot; Level lot; Concrete and paved road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.5% vs local median 2.4% in Fortuna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fortuna Union High (town): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Linell K. Walker Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 294 students, 82% FRL); Fortuna Middle (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #443 of 498 statewide, top 90%, 237 students, 80% FRL); Fortuna Union High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 830 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $33,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 129.30%
• DSCR: 6.75
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $66,881
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.32×
• Total profit: $152,351
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95540

• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $324

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,157	+0% $1,146	+5% $1,136	+10% $1,125
Rent	-10% $1,006	-5% $1,076	+0% $1,146	+5% $1,217	+10% $1,287
Rate	-1.0pp $1,166	-0.5pp $1,156	base $1,146	+0.5pp $1,137	+1.0pp $1,127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   status Active
3. 2026-05-14
   price $38,000
4. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-06
   price $40,000
6. 2026-03-18
   status Active
7. 2026-03-14
   price $49,000
8. 2026-03-05
   status Active
9. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-01
    price $55,000
11. 2025-10-15
    price $60,000
12. 2025-09-21
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $13,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,355
• After-tax cash flow: $10,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fortuna Union High
• NCES district ID: 0614190
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,411
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7386
• State rank: #350 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fortuna

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna, CA
• City population: 14,641
• Population (ZIP): 14,641

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.72%
• Current HPI: 236.0203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-52.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — HAR
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $38,000 HAR
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $40,000 HAR
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $49,000 HAR
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-02-11 Pending — HAR
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $55,000 HAR
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $60,000 HAR
• 2025-09-21 Listed $80,000 HAR

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.