15390 Matthews Manor Rd · Cobb Island, MD 20664

$359,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,679 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1977 0.44 ac lot $214/sqft · 41% below area Est $662k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This split foyer offers a unique and functional layout with all main living areas conveniently located on the lower level, including the living room with pellet stove, kitchen, dining area, half bathroom, and laundry. The upper level features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite that occupies one entire side of the home for added privacy and comfort. HVAC system, roof, gutters, and fascia are less than 8 years old. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a shed, offering both space and storage. Situated on just under half an acre with no HOA. Located in a sought-after school zone within a quiet neighborhood offering community water access and boat ramp. Conveniently close to waterfront restaurants, marinas, and Southern Park with fishing pier, playground, and more.

Key facts

• Pellet stove
• Quiet neighborhood
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY WATER ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• SOUGHT-AFTER SCHOOL ZONE
• PELLET STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Cobb Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#482 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $256k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,857 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $662,291
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: -45.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15420 Matthews Manor Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,820 (+8%)	8mo	$340,000	$187	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-76,350
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-90,026
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20664

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,663/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,959

Max offer price $308,720

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-183	+0% $-285	+5% $-386	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-387	+0% $-285	+5% $-182	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-193	base $-285	+0.5pp $-378	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 811-char remark

   Show marketing remark (811 chars)

   This split foyer offers a unique and functional layout with all main living areas conveniently located on the lower level, including the living room with pellet stove, kitchen, dining area, half bathroom, and laundry. The upper level features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite that occupies one entire side of the home for added privacy and comfort. HVAC system, roof, gutters, and fascia are less than 8 years old. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a shed, offering both space and storage. Situated on just under half an acre with no HOA. Located in a sought-after school zone within a quiet neighborhood offering community water access and boat ramp. Conveniently close to waterfront restaurants, marinas, and Southern Park with fishing pier, playground, and more.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $359,000 811-char remark

   Show marketing remark (811 chars)

   This split foyer offers a unique and functional layout with all main living areas conveniently located on the lower level, including the living room with pellet stove, kitchen, dining area, half bathroom, and laundry. The upper level features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite that occupies one entire side of the home for added privacy and comfort. HVAC system, roof, gutters, and fascia are less than 8 years old. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a shed, offering both space and storage. Situated on just under half an acre with no HOA. Located in a sought-after school zone within a quiet neighborhood offering community water access and boat ramp. Conveniently close to waterfront restaurants, marinas, and Southern Park with fishing pier, playground, and more.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $369,000 Active 811-char remark

   Show marketing remark (811 chars)

   This split foyer offers a unique and functional layout with all main living areas conveniently located on the lower level, including the living room with pellet stove, kitchen, dining area, half bathroom, and laundry. The upper level features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite that occupies one entire side of the home for added privacy and comfort. HVAC system, roof, gutters, and fascia are less than 8 years old. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a shed, offering both space and storage. Situated on just under half an acre with no HOA. Located in a sought-after school zone within a quiet neighborhood offering community water access and boat ramp. Conveniently close to waterfront restaurants, marinas, and Southern Park with fishing pier, playground, and more.

4. 2026-03-16
   historical $2,175
5. 2026-03-12
   listed $2,175
6. 2026-03-05
   historical $2,175
7. 2026-02-13
   price $2,175
8. 2026-02-09
   price $2,275
9. 2026-02-06
   price $2,375
10. 2026-01-31
    listed $2,495
11. 2021-04-13
    soldstatus $256,000
12. 2021-03-31
    soldstatus $256,000 Closed 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Charming home in quiet neighborhood. Bring your camper or boat, NO HOA and just under half acre. Move in ready home freshly painted. New HVAC system (2019) and New roof/gutters/fascia (2018) . Spacious master bedroom and family room. Community does have limited water access, great for jet skis. Enjoy nearby waterfront restaurants , marinas, Hatton Creek Boat Ramp and Southern Park offers a fishing pier, playground, basketball court, baseball fields and picnic area

13. 2021-03-20
    status Pending 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Charming home in quiet neighborhood. Bring your camper or boat, NO HOA and just under half acre. Move in ready home freshly painted. New HVAC system (2019) and New roof/gutters/fascia (2018) . Spacious master bedroom and family room. Community does have limited water access, great for jet skis. Enjoy nearby waterfront restaurants , marinas, Hatton Creek Boat Ramp and Southern Park offers a fishing pier, playground, basketball court, baseball fields and picnic area

14. 2021-02-19
    price $260,000 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Charming home in quiet neighborhood. Bring your camper or boat, NO HOA and just under half acre. Move in ready home freshly painted. New HVAC system (2019) and New roof/gutters/fascia (2018) . Spacious master bedroom and family room. Community does have limited water access, great for jet skis. Enjoy nearby waterfront restaurants , marinas, Hatton Creek Boat Ramp and Southern Park offers a fishing pier, playground, basketball court, baseball fields and picnic area

15. 2021-02-19
    historical Active Under Contract 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Charming home in quiet neighborhood. Bring your camper or boat, NO HOA and just under half acre. Move in ready home freshly painted. New HVAC system (2019) and New roof/gutters/fascia (2018) . Spacious master bedroom and family room. Community does have limited water access, great for jet skis. Enjoy nearby waterfront restaurants , marinas, Hatton Creek Boat Ramp and Southern Park offers a fishing pier, playground, basketball court, baseball fields and picnic area

16. 2021-02-18
    listed $249,900 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Charming home in quiet neighborhood. Bring your camper or boat, NO HOA and just under half acre. Move in ready home freshly painted. New HVAC system (2019) and New roof/gutters/fascia (2018) . Spacious master bedroom and family room. Community does have limited water access, great for jet skis. Enjoy nearby waterfront restaurants , marinas, Hatton Creek Boat Ramp and Southern Park offers a fishing pier, playground, basketball court, baseball fields and picnic area

17. 2013-09-30
    historical
18. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $165,000 Sold
19. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $165,000
20. 2013-08-07
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
21. 2013-08-07
    historical
22. 2013-07-20
    status Active
23. 2013-05-08
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
24. 2012-11-03
    listed $165,000 Active
25. 2012-11-02
    listed $165,000
26. 2006-01-30
    soldstatus $211,141

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,663 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,788 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$3,663
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$9,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,356
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cobb Island

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #482
• US rank: #26883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,135
• Population (ZIP): 3,121

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.20%
• Current HPI: 261.9526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $359,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $369,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Rental Removed $2,175 ZUMPER1
• 2026-03-12 Listed for Rent $2,175 ZUMPER1
• 2026-03-05 Rental Removed $2,175 ZUMPER1
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $2,175 ZUMPER1
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $2,275 ZUMPER1
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $2,375 ZUMPER1
• 2026-01-31 Listed for Rent $2,495 ZUMPER1
• 2021-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $256,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-31 Sold (MLS) $256,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-19 Price Changed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-18 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MRIS
• 2013-08-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-08-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-07-20 Relisted — MRIS
• 2013-05-08 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-11-03 Listed $165,000 MRIS
• 2012-11-02 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $211,141 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,663 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.