4326 Ranger Rd · Abilene, TX 79601

$308,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · Land · 160 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the desirable Water Crest Ranch subdivision. This open-concept floor plan features a spacious living area, modern finishes, and a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Situated on a corner lot, the property includes a sprinkler system and a large backyard. Conveniently located near popular restaurants, shopping, Hendrick Hospital, and approximately 4 miles from the Stargate AI Center. Enjoy quick access to I-20, approximately one mile away. Estimated completion: End of May 2026.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Covered patio
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-49/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,697/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,707 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-36,019
• Equity at exit: $46,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $33,341
• Equity at exit: $26,708

Cash invested: $86,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79601

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Rents YoY: 43.4%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,634/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $308,313

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $103	+0% $-4	+5% $-111	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-111	+0% $-4	+5% $102	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $75	base $-4	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,225
• Closing costs: $9,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 Ranger Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,749	$2.06	45d	1	0.02mi
4225 Ranger Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,749	$2.06	45d	1	0.03mi
527 Colorado St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,750	$2.06	45d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-17
   listed $308,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,303
• − Property taxes: −$4,634
• − Insurance: −$1,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,589
• − Management: −$2,589
• − Depreciation: −$8,986
• Taxable loss: −$5,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $1,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,050
• Household income: $53,631
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.17%
• Current HPI: 214.4372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 43.38%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $308,900 NTREIS