6706 Tam Oshanter Dr #127 · Stockton, CA 95210

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · Manufactured · 180 Days on market

Built 1984 $128/sqft · 13% above area Est $141k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solar-owned, full dual-pane windows, Murphy bed in spare bedroom, new roof, HVAC, storage shed, tankless water heater. This lot may allow an additional shed on the left side of the property.

Key facts

• Hvac
• Kitchen remodeled
• Storage shed

Tags

• OWNED SOLAR
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• KITCHEN REMODELED
• NEW ROOF
• HVAC
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.40%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,885
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 13.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #87	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	0mo	$148,000	$123	88
6706 Tam O Shanter #34	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$36,000	$27	86
6706 Tam O Shanter #49	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (-2%)	11mo	$155,000	$127	78
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #41	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	14mo	$145,000	$126	75
6706 Tam O Shanter #101	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-5%)	21mo	$147,000	$124	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,930
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $74,129
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	44d	1	0.15mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,655	$1.81	19d	1	0.46mi
764 E Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	10d	1	0.46mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-05 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	3d	1	0.46mi
826 Astor Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	0.59mi
7936 Montauban Ave Unit Labs Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	10d	1	0.59mi
307 Goya Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	808	$1,395	$1.73	44d	1	0.64mi
718 Bedlow Dr Unit 720 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	3d	1	0.67mi
718 Bedlow Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	44d	1	0.67mi
5337 Barbados Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,300	$1.76	21d	1	0.67mi
6807 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,750	$1.79	23d	1	0.75mi
7409 Village Green Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1141	$2,000	$1.75	44d	1	0.75mi
1031 Fallbrook Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,695	$1.76	44d	1	0.76mi
218 E Longview Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,350	$1.66	14d	1	0.80mi
7926 Diana Marie Dr Unit 7926 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	3d	1	0.83mi
5509 Kermit Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	3d	1	0.86mi
5509 Kermit Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	14d	1	0.86mi
5324 Holiday Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	3d	3	0.89mi
705 Camanche Ln Unit CAM-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	19d	1	0.93mi
705 Camanche Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	3d	1	0.93mi
705 Camanche Ln Unit CAM-07 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,695	$1.80	19d	1	0.93mi
326 Sue Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1153	$2,495	$2.16	21d	1	0.93mi
326 Sue Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1153	$2,495	$2.16	23d	1	0.93mi
6032 Cresenda Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	968	$2,500	$2.58	21d	1	0.95mi
613 Camanche Ln Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,695	$2.08	3d	3	0.95mi
7620 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,538	$1.86	44d	1	1.00mi
221 Quincy St Unit 1-45 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	3d	1	1.03mi
310 Felton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	3d	1	1.05mi
230 W Pearl Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	3.0	1196	$3,050	$2.55	19d	1	1.14mi
422 Felton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,695	$1.83	44d	1	1.14mi
7007 Inglewood Ave Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,447	$2.07	44d	1	1.22mi
451 Marengo Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	14d	1	1.23mi
531 Glendora Ave Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	620	$1,600	$2.58	3d	7	1.26mi
9211 Dalewood St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	898	$1,495	$1.66	3d	1	1.27mi
1768 Crestwood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	44d	1	1.29mi
706 Edan Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1008	$2,500	$2.48	14d	1	1.30mi
4790 Winona Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,450	$1.65	23d	1	1.31mi
8125 Kiltie Way Unit 8125 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	19d	1	1.32mi
8446 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,300	$1.81	44d	1	1.39mi
4475 La Cresta Way #2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $2,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $4,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B