3503 E Fm 597 · Abernathy, TX 79311

$250,000

0 bd · 2.0 ba · 0 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wake up to wide-open skies on 10.01 acres just east of Abernathy. This 2025 3/2 home (1,568 sf) features open living with island kitchen, all-electric design, new 30-year roof, circular drive, paved frontage, plus RV hookup with septic access—space, function, and quiet country living in Abernathy ISD!

Key facts

• New 30-year roof
• Island kitchen
• Circular drive

Tags

• 10.01 ACRES
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• NEW 30-YEAR ROOF
• CIRCULAR DRIVE
• PAVED FRONTAGE
• RV HOOKUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-783 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (52.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (52.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,608 (52.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.42%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $86,318
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $293,436
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79311

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $136,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-610	-5% $-696	+0% $-783	+5% $-869	+10% $-956
Rent	-10% $-877	-5% $-830	+0% $-783	+5% $-736	+10% $-688
Rate	-1.0pp $-657	-0.5pp $-719	base $-783	+0.5pp $-848	+1.0pp $-913

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $250,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Wake up to wide-open skies on 10.01 acres just east of Abernathy. This 2025 3/2 home (1,568 sf) features open living with island kitchen, all-electric design, new 30-year roof, circular drive, paved frontage, plus RV hookup with septic access—space, function, and quiet country living in Abernathy ISD!

16. 2024-01-22
    soldstatus Closed 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

17. 2023-11-02
    status Pending 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

18. 2023-10-20
    status Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

19. 2023-10-06
    historical 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

20. 2023-08-24
    status Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

21. 2023-08-01
    historical 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

22. 2023-07-27
    price $105,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

23. 2023-05-05
    listed $110,000 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Located in Abernathy, TX. This 10 acre property has electricity, a septic system and a water well. There is a nice storage shed that will be moved and does not convey!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$14,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,413
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abernathy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,776
• Composite: 39.87/100
• National rank: #3862
• State rank: #242 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abernathy

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,533

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 8% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.13%
• Current HPI: 244.4163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $250,000 LARMLS
• 2024-01-22 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-11-02 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-07-27 Price Changed $105,000 LARMLS
• 2023-05-05 Listed $110,000 LARMLS