611 E 5th St · Cozad, NE 69130

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Manufactured public records · 148 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 5,000 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$2,500.00 SELLER CREDIT AT CLOSING This home has been updated with some new windows and flooring, paint, new siding, roof, and tub. Garage is insulated with electric, has a drive through option with doors on each end, and garage door openers and remotes.

Key facts

• Insulated garage
• New siding
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SIDING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW TUB
• INSULATED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.0% in Cozad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#22 in NE, #1,638 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cozad Community Schools (town): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #90 of 111 in NE (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cozad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #319 of 502 statewide, top 68%, 428 students, 50% FRL); Cozad Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #65 of 128 statewide, top 53%, 197 students, 55% FRL); Cozad High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #184 of 261 statewide, top 76%, 260 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-4,495
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $7,896
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69130

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $206/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $170	+0% $146	+5% $122	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $114	+0% $146	+5% $178	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $168	base $146	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $84,900 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $84,900 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $84,900 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $84,900 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $84,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-04-04
   price $84,900 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   $2,500.00 SELLER CREDIT AT CLOSING This home has been updated with some new windows and flooring, paint, new siding, roof, and tub. Garage is insulated with electric, has a drive through option with doors on each end, and garage door openers and remotes.

7. 2026-01-06
   listed $89,000 Active 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   $2,500.00 SELLER CREDIT AT CLOSING This home has been updated with some new windows and flooring, paint, new siding, roof, and tub. Garage is insulated with electric, has a drive through option with doors on each end, and garage door openers and remotes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $206 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,262/yr (+$105/mo · 611.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$206
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$782
• − Management: −$782
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$86
• After-tax cash flow: $1,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cozad Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 3105460
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,563
• Composite: 36.06/100
• National rank: #4770
• State rank: #90 of 111 in NE

Livability — Cozad

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #1638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cozad, NE
• Population (ZIP): 5,056

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,318 people
• By 2030: 22,912 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 22,097 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 21,358 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 19,801 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 17,647 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.6) · D 24.7% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -49.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.6 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.47%
• Current HPI: 231.4673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $84,900 GMNMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $89,000 GMNMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $206 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.