273 William Mills Dr · Stanardsville, VA 22973

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1999 0.37 ac lot Est $327k · at est. $159/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to easy, one-level living in Evergreene Retirement Village, a desirable 55+ community in Stanardsville! This charming and affordable 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Step inside to find a bright, open layout designed for low-maintenance living, with everything you need on one level. The spacious sunroom is a true highlight—perfect for morning coffee, relaxing with a book, or entertaining guests year-round. Enjoy the added convenience of an attached garage, a whole house generator for peace of mind, and a move-in ready interior that makes settling in effortless. Whe

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-179/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Stanardsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#243 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Primary (347 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $325k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,000 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,152
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 William Mills Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,288 (0%)	0mo	$300,000	$233	100
33 Barrington Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	8mo	$349,900	$260	57
81 Pendleton Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,103 (-14%)	20mo	$280,000	$254	54
250 Judges Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,196 (-7%)	21mo	$225,000	$188	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-53,639
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-48,032
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22973

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,709

Max offer price $322,362

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $77	+0% $-15	+5% $-107	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-121	+0% $-15	+5% $91	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $68	base $-15	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
477 Westwood Rd Stanardsville, VA	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,690	$1.86	0d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $325,000 Active
3. 2026-03-18
   historical $325,000
4. 2011-12-10
   historical
5. 2011-12-08
   listed $175,000
6. 2010-01-16
   listed $185,000
7. 2009-11-22
   historical
8. 2008-07-21
   listed $194,900
9. 2005-04-04
   listed $198,000
10. 2001-09-28
    soldstatus $148,000
11. 2001-08-06
    listed $156,000
12. 2001-07-25
    historical
13. 2000-11-09
    listed $156,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$970/yr (+$81/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,385
• After-tax cash flow: $1,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanardsville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #8223

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stanardsville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,980

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.51%
• Current HPI: 181.8265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $325,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-18 Coming Soon $325,000 CAAR
• 2011-12-10 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2011-12-08 Listed $175,000 CAAR
• 2010-01-16 Listed $185,000 CAAR
• 2009-11-22 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2008-07-21 Listed $194,900 CAAR
• 2005-04-04 Listed $198,000 CAAR
• 2001-09-28 Sold (MLS) $148,000 CAAR
• 2001-08-06 Listed $156,000 CAAR
• 2001-07-25 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2000-11-09 Listed $156,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.