2735 Chipley St · Cottondale, FL 32431

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2019 1.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Nice country location and small town living with this 2019 3/2 dwmh on 1.6 acres. Home offers open kitchen, dining, and living areas. Kitchen has plenty of storage, breakfast bar for additional seating, black farm sink, dining area and living room has built in shelves and room for a large TV. Split floorplan has Master bedroom with walk in closet and master bathroom with double vanities, nice garden tub, separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms with walk in closets and a full bath with tub/shower. Laundry and large pantry is just off the kitchen. Spacious yard with a outbuilding and an above ground pool for cooling off during the hot summer months. Close to Hwy 231 and I-10. This well maintained home is a must see!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Soaking tub
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• NEWLY BUILT FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short term rental allowed

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Residential single family zoning; City street frontage (public maintained road, gravel surface)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Open porch; Shed(s); Workshop; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Additional bedrooms (two listed at 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (40.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#649 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, health & safety D.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $210k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,198 (40.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.51%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $93,984
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $292,608
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32431

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $153,644

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-260	+0% $-319	+5% $-378	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-368	+0% $-319	+5% $-270	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-266	base $-319	+0.5pp $-373	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $210,000
3. 2026-03-27
   price $212,850
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 2021-04-09
   soldstatus $139,900
6. 2021-04-08
   soldstatus $139,900 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Nice country location and small town living with this 2019 3/2 dwmh on 1.6 acres. Home offers open kitchen, dining, and living areas. Kitchen has plenty of storage, breakfast bar for additional seating, black farm sink, dining area and living room has built in shelves and room for a large TV. Split floorplan has Master bedroom with walk in closet and master bathroom with double vanities, nice garden tub, separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms with walk in closets and a full bath with tub/shower. Laundry and large pantry is just off the kitchen. Spacious yard with a outbuilding and an above ground pool for cooling off during the hot summer months. Close to Hwy 231 and I-10. This well maintained home is a must see!

7. 2021-01-21
   listed $139,900 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Nice country location and small town living with this 2019 3/2 dwmh on 1.6 acres. Home offers open kitchen, dining, and living areas. Kitchen has plenty of storage, breakfast bar for additional seating, black farm sink, dining area and living room has built in shelves and room for a large TV. Split floorplan has Master bedroom with walk in closet and master bathroom with double vanities, nice garden tub, separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms with walk in closets and a full bath with tub/shower. Laundry and large pantry is just off the kitchen. Spacious yard with a outbuilding and an above ground pool for cooling off during the hot summer months. Close to Hwy 231 and I-10. This well maintained home is a must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,432 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$311/yr (+$26/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$7,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cottondale

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #12805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottondale, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,887

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 16% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.20%
• Current HPI: 208.19
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $210,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $212,850 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $215,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2021-04-08 Sold (MLS) $139,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-01-21 Listed $139,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,432 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.