246 La Joie Ave · Alamo Beach, TX 77979

$98,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 Fair condition 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Alamo Beach, a charming waterfront community perfect for a weekend fishing retreat or full-time residence. This property offers approximately 50' of water frontage and a 1960 mobile home in need of a little TLC. If you have been looking for an affordable property along the Texas coast, look no further! This is a GREAT spot. Lavaca Bay offers some of the best fishing in South Texas. Don't like to fish? Lots of options: boating, kayaking or just taking it easy and enjoying the sunrises and bay breeze. Flat Lot sloping to your own private seasonal beach area. Water connection, septic system, and electricity are in place. Utilities are currently off. This is a MUST SEE and PRICED TO

Key facts

• Water frontage
• Electricity
• Water connection

Tags

• WATER FRONTAGE
• PRIVATE SEASONAL BEACH AREA
• WATER CONNECTION
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ELECTRICITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.48 acres (about 20,908 sq ft); Road surface is gravel; Located in a subdivision
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (single level); Built in 1960
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction materials unknown; Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Bay front waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($338/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (0.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Calhoun County ISD (town): math 44% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #293 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jackson/Roosevelt El (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 852 students, 68% FRL); Travis Middle (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 702 students, 74% FRL); Calhoun H S (math 53% / reading 38%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 987 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calhoun County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,705 (0.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-14,031
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-9,683
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77979

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $941

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $62	+0% $28	+5% $-6	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $-10	+0% $28	+5% $67	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $53	base $28	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $98,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$1,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$938
• − Management: −$938
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable loss: −$1,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$300
• After-tax cash flow: $638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with significant repairs and maintenance needed. The home has a great location with waterfront access, but the current condition will need to be addressed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale repair and replace flooring — A new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale paint interior walls and exterior — Painting will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale repair and replace flooring — A new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale paint interior walls and exterior — Painting will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calhoun County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812480
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,588
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4453
• State rank: #293 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo Beach

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamo Beach, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,179

Population outlook (Calhoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,512 people
• By 2030: 24,183 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 25,370 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 26,388 · +12.2%
• By 2075: 28,014 · +19.1%
• By 2100: 26,314 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calhoun

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.7% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.0pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+20.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.84%
• Current HPI: 163.8892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $98,000 HARMLS