104 Jackson Rd · Maynardville, TN 37705

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1957 1.00 ac lot Est $217k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

0

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Outdoor entertaining
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• RV PARKING
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• NEAR NORRIS LAKE
• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Off-street parking; Main-level parking access
• Utilities: Sewer: Other
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Rolling slope lot; Seasonal mountain view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling reported
• Interior features: Other appliances (unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($958/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 1.7% in Maynardville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#331 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County (rural): math 14% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #127 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $145k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,314 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,056
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Berry Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (-12%)	9mo	$170,000	$213	54
231 Elvin Hill Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+10%)	9mo	$239,900	$238	52
126 Elvin Hill Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+10%)	22mo	$330,000	$330	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $83,985
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $243,177
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37705

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $408/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $145,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $408 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$622/yr (+$52/mo · 152.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$408
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$371
• After-tax cash flow: $1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 4704290
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,598
• Composite: 13.62/100
• National rank: #9507
• State rank: #127 of 139 in TN

Livability — Maynardville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #22002

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,479

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,073 people
• By 2030: 18,888 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 18,090 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 16,693 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 12,894 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 8,564 · -55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.2) · D 14.0% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.9pp toward R · 2008: -41.2pp · 2024: -71.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.2 2020: R+68.4 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+41.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.44%
• Current HPI: 419.2285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+222.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $145,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2009-10-12 Listed $49,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2003-09-29 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2003-08-12 Listed $45,000 Knoxville MLS
• 1998-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1997-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $408 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.