6048 Decloration Cir · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 2025 $179/sqft · 46% above area Est $129k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW EVERYTHING. Be the original owner of this beautiful three bedroom home. Light open modern. Top of the line appliances. Efficient use of space and on a large lot. Located in Creekside estates a desirable park close to everything: Golf, Healthcare, shopping, restaurants, and activities. WELCOME HOME

Key facts

• Close to everything
• Large lot
• Creekside estates

Tags

• TOP OF THE LINE APPLIANCES
• LARGE LOT
• CREEKSIDE ESTATES
• CLOSE TO EVERYTHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.09%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,039
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 46.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6015 Revolution Ln #118	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,012 (-4%)	17mo	$140,000	$138	69
6230 Calgary	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-2%)	9mo	$64,000	$62	68
6226 Gettysburg Ln #14	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+8%)	14mo	$155,000	$135	63
6625 Galaxy Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,146 (+8%)	2mo	$155,000	$135	59
6215 Chinook Ave #176	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-2%)	22mo	$109,000	$105	58
6220 Gettysburg Ln #11	0.14mi	3/2.0	915 (-13%)	17mo	$105,000	$115	57
6222 Manitoba Ave #66	0.40mi	3/2.0	960 (-9%)	11mo	$139,900	$146	57
6220 Calgary Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	18mo	$60,000	$60	54
6213 Plymouth Rock Ln #100	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+14%)	13mo	$119,000	$99	54
6044 Revolution	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	23mo	$80,000	$83	52
6202 Manitoba Ave #53	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-10%)	11mo	$57,000	$60	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,422
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,058
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,161 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6219 Oak Valley Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	3.0	1304	$2,295	$1.76	18d	1	0.20mi
6219 Oak Valley Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,295	$1.76	44d	1	0.20mi
6011 Shadow Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,348	$3.01	2d	15	0.22mi
6203 Ackland Ct Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.5	1322	$2,500	$1.89	24d	1	0.29mi
6104 Rockport Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.5	1150	$2,295	$2.00	22d	1	0.38mi
5979 Devecchi Ave Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,871	$2.41	2d	15	0.41mi
6245 Longford Dr #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.46mi
6228 Longford Dr #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,595	$1.90	18d	1	0.50mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5853-D Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,525	$1.67	16d	1	0.55mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5877-B Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,575	$1.72	16d	1	0.55mi
6430 Verner Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,295	$3.25	24d	1	0.56mi
6544 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	24d	1	0.58mi
6533 Greenback Ln #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	24d	1	0.61mi
5718 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	44d	1	0.62mi
6558 Meadowcreek Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,500	$1.92	44d	1	0.74mi
5922 Petaluma Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$2,075	$1.98	2d	1	0.75mi
6333 Aslin Way Carmichael, CA	4.0	2.0	1257	$2,750	$2.19	44d	1	0.75mi
6546 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,853	$2.97	4d	10	0.76mi
6687 Greenback Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,495	$1.89	18d	1	0.77mi
6000 Coyle Ave Carmichael, CA	4.0	2.0	1120	$2,295	$2.05	24d	1	0.85mi
5840 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,545	$1.82	2d	2	0.85mi
5587 Keoncrest Cir Unit 2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,000	$2.22	2d	1	0.89mi
5417 Olympic Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,795	$1.95	15d	1	0.89mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	2d	1	0.92mi
6319 Misty Wood Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.98mi
6225 Wildomar Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	1.0	1040	$3,000	$2.88	44d	1	1.01mi
5233 Calistoga Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,495	$2.08	2d	1	1.06mi
5402 Mona Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$1,750	$2.03	22d	1	1.11mi
6004 Rutland Dr Unit 128 Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	4d	1	1.13mi
7024 San Altos Cir Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,800	$2.50	44d	1	1.20mi
5308 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	44d	1	1.23mi
5300 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	24d	1	1.26mi
6913 Gold Run Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,800	$1.90	20d	1	1.26mi
5109 Andrea Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	828	$1,769	$2.14	2d	2	1.29mi
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	44d	1	1.31mi
7120 Van Maren Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,495	$1.93	18d	1	1.33mi
6841 Concert Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	2d	1	1.33mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	20d	5	1.34mi
6172 Peoria Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	917	$1,695	$1.85	4d	1	1.35mi
5233 Columbine Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,375	$2.36	4d	1	1.38mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 32% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $1,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$460
• After-tax cash flow: $4,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B