2301 E 20th Ave · Gary, IN 46407

$22,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1952 4,487 sqft lot $29/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Low property taxes!!!! Needs work!

Key facts

• 4,487 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $23k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $838 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $23k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.2% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,300/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 392% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $382 of equity ($158 loan paydown + $224 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $21,526 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 156.83%
• DSCR: 7.98
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,598
• List price: $22,900
• Delta: -69.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2224 E 20th Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	780 (0%)	2mo	$10,000	$13	96
2216 E 21st Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	780 (0%)	4mo	$12,000	$15	94
2204 Central Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	775 (-1%)	8mo	$70,000	$90	85
2237 E 19th Pl	0.09mi	2/1.0	725 (-7%)	12mo	$83,000	$114	74
1954 Central Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	825 (+6%)	2mo	$128,000	$155	70
1824 Central Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0	725 (-7%)	2mo	$101,000	$139	68
1819 Illinois St	0.45mi	2/1.0	725 (-7%)	11mo	$55,000	$76	58
2601 E 21st Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (+13%)	3mo	$119,000	$135	58
2042 Mississippi St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	836 (+7%)	8mo	$144,001	$172	55
2925 Central Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (+13%)	2mo	$30,000	$34	48
2131 Kentucky St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	804 (+3%)	9mo	$20,000	$25	48
2254 Tennessee St	0.73mi	2/1.0	672 (-14%)	11mo	$17,500	$26	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.39×
• Total profit: $53,816
• Equity at exit: $7,793

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.72×
• Total profit: $120,015
• Equity at exit: $10,338

Cash invested: $6,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46407

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$120
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $710/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $239

Max offer price $22,900

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,725
• Closing costs: $687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2025 Central Dr Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	875	$1,550	$1.77	43d	1	0.20mi
1843 Illinois St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	16d	1	0.44mi
2908 Central Dr Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	884	$1,525	$1.73	1d	1	0.49mi
2355 Rhode Island St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	701	$1,095	$1.56	43d	1	0.95mi
1252-54 Idaho St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	1d	1	1.00mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	989	$950	$0.96	1d	1	1.09mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Unit B Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	989	$1,150	$1.16	1d	1	1.09mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	989	$950	$0.96	3d	1	1.09mi
2453 Prospect St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	704	$1,095	$1.56	1d	1	1.09mi
2425 Prospect St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	1d	1	1.10mi
2061 Maryland St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	975	$950	$0.97	43d	1	1.12mi
2300 Maryland St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	19d	1	1.19mi
844 Tennessee St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	1.23mi
2336 Delaware St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	1d	1	1.26mi
1329 Delaware St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.32mi
1316 Delaware St Unit 2 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	20d	1	1.35mi
2022 Massachusetts St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	965	$1,000	$1.04	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $22,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $22,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $22,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $22,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $22,900 Active 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    Low property taxes!!!! Needs work!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,283
• − Property taxes: −$710
• − Insurance: −$114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$666
• Taxable income: $10,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,479
• After-tax cash flow: $7,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 8,577
• Household income: $28,526
• Rent vs Own: 58.8% rent · 41.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 392.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 253.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $22,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $710 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.