31 Mugford St · Marblehead, MA 01945

$879,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1780 3,250 sqft lot $638/sqft · at area comps Est $864k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Marblehead - historic district - Circa 1780 - three unit multi-family with potential for conversion to a single-family. Two car garage plus additional parking. Great spot, with easy access to Crosby's, boutiques, restaurants, parks, transportation to Boston, and Marblehead harbor. Ready to be transformed into your ideal home - Bring your toolbox! OFFERED 'AS IS.'

Key facts

• Stable tenancy
• Private retreat
• 3,250 sq ft lot

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED STUDIO APARTMENTS
• DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• BEACON HILL STYLE GARDEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• STABLE TENANCY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building total area listed as 1,378; Lot size approximately 0.07 acres; Property listed as active
• HOA & community: Community amenities include public transportation, shopping, tennis courts, parks, walk/jog trails, laundromat, bike path, house of worship, and public school; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage (2 garage spaces); Two covered spaces; Two open parking spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces; Shared driveway, off-street parking, deeded parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with 110 volts and circuit breakers
• Home design: 3-family property (3 units up/down); Three stories; White exterior color
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone and granite foundation; Shingle roof; Built year from public records
• Exterior features: Garden; Public road frontage; Close to harbor and public beach (3/10 to 1/2 mile)

Interior

• Flooring: Wood; Pine
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Three heating units; No cooling units listed
• Interior features: Wood and pine flooring; Crawl space basement; Four fireplaces; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $879k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $280/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $804k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $804k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.7% in Marblehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#161 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Marblehead (suburban): math 58% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 302 in MA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Village School (math 54% / reading 63%, grade B, #49 of 305 statewide, top 16%, 555 students, 0% FRL); Marblehead High (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #49 of 343 statewide, top 14%, 879 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.0%/yr); 49 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,032 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (590 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $246k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($853k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $879k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1780 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $803,800 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1780 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $864,108
• List price: $879,000
• Delta: 1.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Hawkes St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+6%)	9mo	$730,000	$502	56
35 Rowland St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+14%)	15mo	$835,000	$532	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-46,738
• Equity at exit: $131,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $220,543
• Equity at exit: $76,000

Cash invested: $246,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01945

• Rents YoY: 19.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 27.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,610
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,421/yr
• Insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,688
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,976

Max offer price $879,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,337	-5% $1,088	+0% $839	+5% $590	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $522	+0% $839	+5% $1,157	+10% $1,474
Rate	-1.0pp $1,282	-0.5pp $1,063	base $839	+0.5pp $611	+1.0pp $380

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	3	$8,037
Total (3 units)			$8,038

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $219,750
• Closing costs: $26,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Mugford St Unit 3 Marblehead, MA	2.0	1.0	1022	$2,900	$2.84	45d	1	0.07mi
149 Pleasant St Unit 2 Marblehead, MA	2.0	2.0	1092	$4,500	$4.12	45d	1	0.52mi
11 Vine St #4 Marblehead, MA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,250	$2.57	18d	1	0.68mi
34 Lafayette St Marblehead, MA	2.0	1.0	1139	$3,400	$2.99	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $879,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $879,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $879,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $879,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $879,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $879,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $879,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $879,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $879,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $879,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $879,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $879,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $879,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $879,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $879,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $879,000 967-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $899,000 New 967-char remark
18. 2008-09-19
    soldstatus $280,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Marblehead - historic district - Circa 1780 - three unit multi-family with potential for conversion to a single-family. Two car garage plus additional parking. Great spot, with easy access to Crosby's, boutiques, restaurants, parks, transportation to Boston, and Marblehead harbor. Ready to be transformed into your ideal home - Bring your toolbox! OFFERED 'AS IS.'

19. 2008-09-19
    soldstatus $280,000

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Marblehead - historic district - Circa 1780 - three unit multi-family with potential for conversion to a single-family. Two car garage plus additional parking. Great spot, with easy access to Crosby's, boutiques, restaurants, parks, transportation to Boston, and Marblehead harbor. Ready to be transformed into your ideal home - Bring your toolbox! OFFERED 'AS IS.'

20. 2008-08-06
    historical 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Marblehead - historic district - Circa 1780 - three unit multi-family with potential for conversion to a single-family. Two car garage plus additional parking. Great spot, with easy access to Crosby's, boutiques, restaurants, parks, transportation to Boston, and Marblehead harbor. Ready to be transformed into your ideal home - Bring your toolbox! OFFERED 'AS IS.'

21. 2008-05-12
    listed $329,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Marblehead - historic district - Circa 1780 - three unit multi-family with potential for conversion to a single-family. Two car garage plus additional parking. Great spot, with easy access to Crosby's, boutiques, restaurants, parks, transportation to Boston, and Marblehead harbor. Ready to be transformed into your ideal home - Bring your toolbox! OFFERED 'AS IS.'

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,421 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,616 · $718/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,195/yr (+$183/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,238
• − Property taxes: −$6,421
• − Insurance: −$4,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,716
• − Management: −$7,716
• − Depreciation: −$25,571
• Taxable loss: −$4,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $11,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marblehead
• NCES district ID: 2507260
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $100,530
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #1009
• State rank: #42 of 302 in MA

Livability — Marblehead

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #10815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marblehead, MA
• County: Essex County · 632,995 people
• City population: 20,470
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• Population (ZIP): 20,470
• Household income: $179,583
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 840,920 people
• By 2030: 872,201 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 927,918 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 970,206 · +15.4%
• By 2075: 1,077,993 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 1,103,053 · +31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.2% · R 38.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+29.1 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -472.12%
• Current HPI: 275.3628
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.02%
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+167.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $879,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-04-28 Listed $899,000 MLS PIN
• 2008-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-19 Sold (MLS) $280,000 MLS PIN
• 2008-08-06 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2008-05-12 Listed $329,000 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,421 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.