10187 Birch Island Rd · Wakefield, VA 23888

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1968 0.81 ac lot $63/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 10187 Birch Island Road in Wakefield, VA! Situated on a spacious 0.82-acre lot along a great stretch of road, this 3 bedroom and 1 bath ranch offers single-level living with room to make it your own. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking with a gravel driveway and two front entry points, one leading into the living room and the other into a practical mudroom/laundry area, perfect for everyday functionality. A detached storage shed provides additional space for tools and outdoor equipment, and the backyard extends to the tree line for added privacy. Inside, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout much of the home, including the living room and all three bedrooms. The primary bedroom is the largest of the three and features a double-door closet. The dining room includes a ceiling fan and pantry for added storage, and the kitchen offers a double sink and solid surface countertops with space ready for your appliance selections. The laundry/utility room includes a dryer hookup with exterior access for convenience. Additional features include vinyl siding, vinyl windows, heat pump with central air, and a detached shed. Water heater replaced in 2018 and situated near the washer hookup. This home offers a nice layout, generous lot size, and great potential for an owner-occupant or investor looking to add value.

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• Off street parking
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• 0.82 ACRE LOT
• OFF STREET PARKING
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• BACKYARD EXTENDS TO TREE LINE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.4% in Wakefield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#180 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Sussex County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #111 of 131 in VA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.86%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,657
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -57.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Virginia Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+6%)	2mo	$269,000	$213	56
106 Sylvan Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	6mo	$162,000	$128	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $56,685
• Equity at exit: $52,593

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.77×
• Total profit: $142,261
• Equity at exit: $100,471

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23888

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $570

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $491	+0% $470	+5% $449	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $378	-5% $424	+0% $470	+5% $516	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $489	base $470	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $75,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   status $75,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 1346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

   Welcome to 10187 Birch Island Road in Wakefield, VA! Situated on a spacious 0.82-acre lot along a great stretch of road, this 3 bedroom and 1 bath ranch offers single-level living with room to make it your own. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking with a gravel driveway and two front entry points, one leading into the living room and the other into a practical mudroom/laundry area, perfect for everyday functionality. A detached storage shed provides additional space for tools and outdoor equipment, and the backyard extends to the tree line for added privacy. Inside, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout much of the home, including the living room and all three bedrooms. The primary bedroom is the largest of the three and features a double-door closet. The dining room includes a ceiling fan and pantry for added storage, and the kitchen offers a double sink and solid surface countertops with space ready for your appliance selections. The laundry/utility room includes a dryer hookup with exterior access for convenience. Additional features include vinyl siding, vinyl windows, heat pump with central air, and a detached shed. Water heater replaced in 2018 and situated near the washer hookup. This home offers a nice layout, generous lot size, and great potential for an owner-occupant or investor looking to add value.

5. 2026-04-20
   listed $75,000 Active 1346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

   Welcome to 10187 Birch Island Road in Wakefield, VA! Situated on a spacious 0.82-acre lot along a great stretch of road, this 3 bedroom and 1 bath ranch offers single-level living with room to make it your own. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking with a gravel driveway and two front entry points, one leading into the living room and the other into a practical mudroom/laundry area, perfect for everyday functionality. A detached storage shed provides additional space for tools and outdoor equipment, and the backyard extends to the tree line for added privacy. Inside, you’ll find hardwood floors throughout much of the home, including the living room and all three bedrooms. The primary bedroom is the largest of the three and features a double-door closet. The dining room includes a ceiling fan and pantry for added storage, and the kitchen offers a double sink and solid surface countertops with space ready for your appliance selections. The laundry/utility room includes a dryer hookup with exterior access for convenience. Additional features include vinyl siding, vinyl windows, heat pump with central air, and a detached shed. Water heater replaced in 2018 and situated near the washer hookup. This home offers a nice layout, generous lot size, and great potential for an owner-occupant or investor looking to add value.

6. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-13
   historical
8. 2026-04-06
   price $75,000
9. 2026-03-25
   price $79,900
10. 2026-02-26
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 99.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $4,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sussex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103780
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -46.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4198
• State rank: #111 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wakefield

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #5535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,563

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,207 people
• By 2030: 10,897 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,451 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 9,936 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 8,643 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 6,908 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 47% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 23.8pp · 2024: 4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.4 2020: D+11.9 2016: D+16.3 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Current HPI: 161.5201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $79,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $85,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.