1216 Maple Ln · Sedalia, MO 65301

$44,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1959 7,057 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

Key facts

• 7,057 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

🔨 Auction listing. The $44,900 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $171,940 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($60/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Sedalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#107 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Sedalia 200 (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #89 of 324 in MO (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Pettis County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pettis County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,940
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -73.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1406 W Broadway Blvd	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,692 (-4%)	2mo	$116,000	$43	78
1101 W Broadway Blvd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,620 (-6%)	4mo	$150,000	$57	73
519 W Broadway Blvd	0.48mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,466 (-12%)	2mo	$130,000	$53	49
1406 S Warren Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,580 (-8%)	8mo	$265,000	$103	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,588
• Equity at exit: $25,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-23,793
• Equity at exit: $14,866

Cash invested: $48,143 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65301

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,314/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $171,940

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,985
• Closing costs: $5,158
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $44,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

3. 2026-04-03
   price $49,100 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

4. 2026-03-13
   status Active 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

5. 2026-03-13
   price $53,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

6. 2026-02-28
   historical 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

7. 2026-02-24
   listed $58,300 Active 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,854 square feet of comfortable living space. This classic brick ranch features a welcoming front porch and large picture window that fills the home with natural light. AUCTION, AS IS.

8. 2026-01-09
   listed $116,600 Active
9. 1997-04-17
   soldstatus
10. 1997-04-02
    soldstatus
11. 1987-01-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,631
• − Property taxes: −$1,314
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$5,002
• Taxable loss: −$2,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$702
• After-tax cash flow: $762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedalia 200
• NCES district ID: 2927830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,452
• Composite: 38.7/100
• National rank: #4141
• State rank: #89 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sedalia

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #6990

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sedalia, MO
• County: Pettis County · 35,091 people
• City population: 35,091
• Metro: Sedalia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 35,091
• Household income: $58,064
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1021.0

Population outlook (Pettis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,992 people
• By 2030: 41,584 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 40,483 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 39,049 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 35,413 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 30,870 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pettis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 24.9% · R 73.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+28.8 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.80%
• Current HPI: 292.8224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sedalia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-61.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $44,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $49,100 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $53,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $58,300 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $116,600 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,314 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.