1481 N 22nd Dr · Show Low, AZ 85901

$329,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2004 6,098 sqft lot $227/sqft · 27% above area Est $260k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of mountain living with cooler summer temperatures, crisp pine-scented air, and breathtaking starry nights. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located in the sought-after Fool Hollow Lake Resort in Show Low, offering the rare convenience of walking distance to the lake while being nestled among peaceful, mature trees. Just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, yet perfectly positioned for quiet retreat living. Featuring an assumable loan at an outstanding 3.75%, this property is an excellent opportunity for a primary home, vacation getaway, or income-producing Airbnb or rental.

Key facts

• Mature trees
• Quiet retreat living
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE LAKE
• MATURE TREES
• QUIET RETREAT LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $252k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,470 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,013
• List price: $329,999
• Delta: 26.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1220 N 26th Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	18mo	$260,000	$179	74
2360 N 22Nd Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	15mo	$285,000	$212	63
2431 W Savage	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-14%)	18mo	$150,000	$120	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-31,961
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-606
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,444

Max offer price $329,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2850 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,700	$1.66	13d	1	0.53mi
2890 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,700	$1.63	43d	1	0.55mi
311 S 16th Ave Unit 1545774P Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,355	$2.42	13d	1	1.24mi
341 N 4th Ave Show Low, AZ	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,195	$1.22	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $329,999 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,999 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,999 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,999 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,999 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,999 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $329,999 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,999 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,999 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,999 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,999 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,999 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,999 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,999 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,999 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,999 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $335,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Enjoy the best of mountain living with cooler summer temperatures, crisp pine-scented air, and breathtaking starry nights. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located in the sought-after Fool Hollow Lake Resort in Show Low, offering the rare convenience of walking distance to the lake while being nestled among peaceful, mature trees. Just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, yet perfectly positioned for quiet retreat living. Featuring an assumable loan at an outstanding 3.75%, this property is an excellent opportunity for a primary home, vacation getaway, or income-producing Airbnb or rental.

18. 2021-12-23
    soldstatus $251,500 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the White Mountains! 3 bedrooms/2 full baths, vaulted ceilings and a very spacious floor plan make this pretty home a must see! Side and backyard retaining walls, river rock drainage swales, beautiful walkways and three utility buildings for all of your outdoor storage needs. Home is being sold furnished. A list of those included items to be provided. Schedule your private showing today!

19. 2021-12-23
    soldstatus $251,500

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the White Mountains! 3 bedrooms/2 full baths, vaulted ceilings and a very spacious floor plan make this pretty home a must see! Side and backyard retaining walls, river rock drainage swales, beautiful walkways and three utility buildings for all of your outdoor storage needs. Home is being sold furnished. A list of those included items to be provided. Schedule your private showing today!

20. 2018-09-18
    soldstatus $145,000
21. 2018-09-18
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $750 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,428/yr (+$119/mo · 190.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,760
• − Management: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$1,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $4,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+131.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $335,000 WMMLS
• 2021-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $251,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-23 Sold (MLS) $251,500 WMMLS
• 2018-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-18 Sold (MLS) $145,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $750 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.