Penwell Plan · Heron Bay, GA 30223

$344,200

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,175 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Penwell floorplan at Teamon Pointe is a two-story home offering 2,205 square feet of living space across 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus a powder room. The 2-car garage ensures plenty of space for multiple vehicles and storage. Open the door to a flex room that you can make your own. Create a dedicated home office, formal dining room for hosting or an additional living area. An island kitchen with bar top seating includes modern cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen flows into a casual breakfast area and beyond into the spacious family room so everyone stays connected. Plus, there is a convenient powder room on the main level.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Modern cabinetry
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• BAR TOP SEATING
• MODERN CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CASUAL BREAKFAST AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $344,200 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,596.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (44.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (51.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 4.4% in Heron Bay — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jordan Hill Road Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 356 students, 98% FRL); Kennedy Road Middle School (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #392 of 470 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 98% FRL); Spalding High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,252 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $168,426 (51.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.07%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,596
• List price: $344,200
• Delta: -0.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2985 Teamon Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,193 (+1%)	4mo	$550,000	$251	74
2960 Teamon Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-10%)	4mo	$310,000	$159	61
1004 Dirr Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-7%)	1mo	$399,900	$197	57
1150 Leconte Ct	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,872 (-14%)	1mo	$512,510	$274	53
1015 Dirr Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (-1%)	23mo	$407,470	$190	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-122,166
• Equity at exit: $51,380

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-190,071
• Equity at exit: $29,794

Cash invested: $96,487 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,200 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30223

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 17.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,807
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,169/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-1,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,014

Max offer price $192,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-813	-5% $-932	+0% $-1,051	+5% $-1,170	+10% $-1,289
Rent	-10% $-1,184	-5% $-1,117	+0% $-1,051	+5% $-984	+10% $-918
Rate	-1.0pp $-877	-0.5pp $-963	base $-1,051	+0.5pp $-1,140	+1.0pp $-1,231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,149
• Closing costs: $10,338
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Alcovy Ct Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,745	$1.23	139d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,200 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,200 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,200 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $344,200 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $344,200 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $344,200 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $344,200 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $344,200 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,303
• − Property taxes: −$5,169
• − Insurance: −$1,723
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$10,025
• Taxable loss: −$19,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,618
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances home's value and convenience ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Rental Install smart thermostat — Attracts renters and improves energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jordan Hill Road Elementary School F GA #878/1,228 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Kennedy Road Middle School F GA #392/470 Nat'l #12,557/14,009 High Spalding High School F GA #258/424 Nat'l #14,759/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin-Spalding County
• NCES district ID: 1302520
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,895
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9496
• State rank: #151 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spalding County · 63,015 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 38,262
• Household income: $59,054
• Rent vs Own: 39.5% rent · 60.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Spalding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,015 people
• By 2030: 61,689 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 57,932 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 53,474 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 43,228 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 32,290 · -48.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Spalding

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.4% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.92%
• Current HPI: 225.7933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B