181 Emerson Cook Rd · Pittsboro, NC 27312

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1992 1.00 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,500 square feet of living space, including both a living room and a den—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Situated on a generous 1-acre lot, the property provides privacy and room to enjoy the outdoors. Additional features include a detached carport and a wired outbuilding, perfect for storage! Conveniently located between Siler City and Pittsboro!

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Generous 1-acre lot
• Living room

Tags

• DETACHED CARPORT
• WIRED OUTBUILDING
• GENEROUS 1-ACRE LOT
• LIVING ROOM
• DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.9% in Pittsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#153 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chatham County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #68 of 178 in NC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 505 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 458 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chatham County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.73%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,137
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $16,832
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27312

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 505
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-11-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-23
   historical Due Diligence Period
3. 2025-10-17
   price $179,900
4. 2025-09-29
   price $199,000
5. 2025-09-26
   status Active
6. 2025-09-05
   historical Due Diligence Period
7. 2025-08-28
   price $204,900
8. 2025-08-21
   status Active
9. 2025-07-28
   status Pending Accepting Backup Offers
10. 2025-07-11
    historical Due Diligence Period
11. 2025-05-28
    price $209,900
12. 2025-05-05
    listed $214,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$247/yr (+$21/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $3,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$755
• After-tax cash flow: $5,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,371
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3390
• State rank: #68 of 178 in NC

Livability — Pittsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #8450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chatham County · 23,341 people
• City population: 23,341
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,341
• Household income: $103,104
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 484.0

Population outlook (Chatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,640 people
• By 2030: 90,521 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 99,791 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 106,565 · +25.9%
• By 2075: 119,165 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 122,958 · +45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chatham

• 2024 margin: D (+12.5) · D 55.7% · R 43.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.5 2020: D+11.5 2016: D+10.1 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.26%
• Current HPI: 255.9179
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-01 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-10-23 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $179,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $199,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2025-09-05 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $204,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-08-21 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2025-07-28 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-07-11 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $209,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $214,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +95.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.