52301 W Cardinal Rd · Ak-Chin Village, AZ 85139

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1986 3.31 ac lot Est $272k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing Investment Opportunity! Own this 4-bedroom Redman home situated on 3.3 beautiful acres filled with stunning saguaros. Enjoy peaceful desert living from the full-length front and back porches--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you'll find a spacious great room with a breakfast bar, a split floor plan for added privacy, vaulted ceilings, and ceiling fans throughout. The property features its own private well and a large 24x40 garage/workshop complete with a bathroom--ideal for hobbies, storage, or a home-based business. This truly is a one-of-a-kind property with endless potential!

Key facts

• 3.3 acres
• Spacious great room
• Private well

Tags

• 3.3 ACRES
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE WELL
• LARGE GARAGE/WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 3; Tandem garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic (connected and on-site)
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Log siding and wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Desert front and back yard; Mountain views; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary/ master bedroom; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laundry area inside
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ak-Chin Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $160k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.58%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,272
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51210 W Bluejay St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	12mo	$299,900	$187	44
51134 W Bluejay St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	12mo	$299,800	$187	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,827
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $39,003
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85139

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $702	+0% $656	+5% $611	+10% $566
Rent	-10% $495	-5% $576	+0% $656	+5% $737	+10% $818
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $697	base $656	+0.5pp $615	+1.0pp $573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $175,000
17. 2026-05-02
    price $180,000
18. 2026-04-24
    status Active
19. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-08
    status Active
21. 2026-04-03
    status Pending
22. 2026-03-27
    listed $189,000 Active
23. 2007-12-15
    historical
24. 2007-03-15
    listed $265,000
25. 1996-01-26
    soldstatus $53,000
26. 1994-01-03
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $5,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $6,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Ak-Chin Village

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,784
• Household income: $86,894
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Native American 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.22%
• Current HPI: 313.8539
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+288.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2007-12-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-03-15 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 1996-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $618 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.