1323 Little Heron Pl · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$309,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · Land · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY! The Berkeley II floor plan features 1,647 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, perfectly suited for first time homebuyers or those looking to downsize while maintaining comfort and style. This home features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering ample room for families, guests, or a home office. The open-concept design creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas great for easy entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen provides generous counter space, plenty of storage, and a practical layout. Retreat to the main bedroom suite with its private bathroom, designed as a peaceful sanctuar

Key facts

• New home community
• Modern floor plans
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• NEW HOME COMMUNITY
• MODERN FLOOR PLANS
• SMART FEATURES
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• FLEMING ISLAND SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,284 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-79,931
• Equity at exit: $46,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-121,512
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $242,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-296	+0% $-384	+5% $-472	+10% $-560
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-466	+0% $-384	+5% $-302	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-305	base $-384	+0.5pp $-465	+1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.70mi
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.71mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.72mi
1507 Julia St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,020	$1.25	3d	1	0.85mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	1.25mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $309,990
3. 2026-02-23
   price $319,990
4. 2026-01-27
   price $321,990
5. 2025-12-26
   listed $334,990 Active
6. 2025-10-10
   soldstatus $1,905,000
7. 2025-08-22
   soldstatus $11,212,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,457
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $309,990 realMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $319,990 realMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $321,990 realMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $334,990 realMLS
• 2025-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,905,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $11,212,500 Public Records