554 Beck Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$324,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 5,998 sqft lot $181/sqft · 10% below area Est $361k · 10% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FINAL NEW HOME in LakePointe! $15,000 FLEX CASH + $17,000 IN UPGRADES - LIMITED TIME! Don't miss your final opportunity to own a brand-new home in LakePointe! This beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,800 sq ft of open-concept living space designed for both comfort and entertaining. Enjoy a spacious living area that flows into a modern kitchen with custom cabinetry and abundant storage. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and luxurious bath, while three additional bedrooms provide versatility for family or office space. Relax or entertain outdoors on your covered patio. This is the LAST new home available in LakePointe, act fast before it's gone!

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Special taxing entities apply
• Financial info: Second mortgage: none; Loan type: Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; HOA management: Essex Association Mng LP; HOA fee paid annually; Full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees included; Community amenities include pool, fishing, jogging/bike paths, park, playground, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approximately 20' x 22'); Two covered parking spaces; 2-car single door configuration
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district; Multiple energy-efficient features including enhanced insulation, HVAC efficiency, thermostat control, efficient water heater, low-flow commode, and energy-efficient windows
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction completed in 2025; Smart-home features present
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Gutters; Wood fencing with gate surrounding the backyard; Patio/porch is covered; Located in a subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 50' x 120'

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Seven total rooms; One living area; One dining area; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,308 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,299
• List price: $324,999
• Delta: -10.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Chase Creek Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (0%)	1mo	$329,999	$183	90
383 Rockstream Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (0%)	2mo	$314,990	$175	87
643 Dove Haven Way	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+2%)	2mo	$319,490	$173	76
201 Brookview Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,902 (+6%)	1mo	$360,000	$189	74
562 Water Valley Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,992 (+11%)	1mo	$330,000	$166	74
358 Silver Springs Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,002 (+11%)	2mo	$324,990	$162	72
631 Dove Haven Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-9%)	2mo	$303,990	$186	70
358 Chase Creek Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,002 (+11%)	2mo	$324,000	$162	69
830 Creekview Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,861 (+3%)	0mo	$295,000	$159	68
461 Marsh Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+11%)	2mo	$349,999	$175	68
615 Dove Haven Way	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (+8%)	2mo	$319,990	$165	67
140 Chase Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,002 (+11%)	1mo	$319,500	$160	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-63,224
• Equity at exit: $48,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,793
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,402/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,662

Max offer price $295,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $19	-5% $-73	+0% $-165	+5% $-257	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-262	+0% $-165	+5% $-68	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-82	base $-165	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,988	$1.97	0d	79	0.04mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	20d	1	0.06mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	26d	1	0.14mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	0.14mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	45d	1	0.16mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	45d	1	0.19mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	8d	1	0.22mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.46mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.48mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	14d	1	0.57mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.61mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	4d	1	0.62mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	0.63mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	1d	25	0.63mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	45d	1	0.98mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	0d	104	1.08mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	1d	1	1.15mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	26d	1	1.18mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	1.35mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	26d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $324,999 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,999 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,999 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,999 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,999 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,999 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,999 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,999 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,999 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,999 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,999 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,999 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,999 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,999 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,999 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $324,999 Active 1053-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    price $324,999 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    FINAL NEW HOME in LakePointe! $15,000 FLEX CASH + $17,000 IN UPGRADES - LIMITED TIME! Don't miss your final opportunity to own a brand-new home in LakePointe! This beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,800 sq ft of open-concept living space designed for both comfort and entertaining. Enjoy a spacious living area that flows into a modern kitchen with custom cabinetry and abundant storage. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and luxurious bath, while three additional bedrooms provide versatility for family or office space. Relax or entertain outdoors on your covered patio. This is the LAST new home available in LakePointe, act fast before it's gone!

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $329,999 Active 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    FINAL NEW HOME in LakePointe! $15,000 FLEX CASH + $17,000 IN UPGRADES - LIMITED TIME! Don't miss your final opportunity to own a brand-new home in LakePointe! This beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,800 sq ft of open-concept living space designed for both comfort and entertaining. Enjoy a spacious living area that flows into a modern kitchen with custom cabinetry and abundant storage. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and luxurious bath, while three additional bedrooms provide versatility for family or office space. Relax or entertain outdoors on your covered patio. This is the LAST new home available in LakePointe, act fast before it's gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,402 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,947 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,545/yr (+$295/mo · 147.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,402
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $324,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $324,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $329,999 Zillow

Property tax history

+64.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,402 · +64.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.