8814 Giles Rd #12 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$99,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Maplewood Meadows, a peaceful, well-kept community of just 19 homes located in a desirable country setting. Shopping and dining at Birch Bay Square and downtown Blaine are only minutes away. Just renovated, this move-in-ready 3-Bed, 1-bath features BRAND NEW vinyl plank flooring, washer/dryer, stove/oven, countertops, stainless steel kitchen sink, and cabinetry. Additional improvements include newer exterior paint, energy-efficient vinyl windows, and an upgraded water heater. During the hottest months, central A/C keeps the home comfortable. Enjoy the spacious, sun-filled backyard—ideal for gardening, entertaining, or simply relaxing outdoors. Green space borders the rear o

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1980
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Storage allowed beside or behind home (10 x 20 allowed, not provided)
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $590 per month; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Buyer brokerage compensation: 3%
• HOA & community: Maplewood Meadows park; 19 homes in park; Park approved for sale; Trails in the park; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Open/uncovered parking; 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; Septic sewer; Electric water heater located in bedroom closet; Power provided by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Manufactured after 6/15/1976; FTWD Wingate model; One story; Faces west; Has a view; Updated/remodeled condition; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Metal skirt; Metal/vinyl construction materials; Torch down roof
• Exterior features: Awnings; Double-pane windows; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Dead-end street; Paved lot; Metal/vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with bathtub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Forced air cooling with heat pump
• Interior features: Water heater; Kitchen with eating space; Living room; Utility room; Updated/remodeled interior
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $937 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.58%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,224
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8814 Giles Rd #12	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	868 (0%)	1mo	$106,000	$122	92
3439 McGee Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0	880 (+1%)	13mo	$412,000	$468	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $113,859
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.42×
• Total profit: $288,828
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,006	-5% $972	+0% $937	+5% $903	+10% $869
Rent	-10% $775	-5% $856	+0% $937	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,100
Rate	-1.0pp $987	-0.5pp $963	base $937	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $8,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $110 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.