2806 Willow Ct Dr · Orion, MI 48360

$127,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Condo public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1972 $145/sqft · 7% below area Est $137k · 7% under $400/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing value! Stop renting an own your own home. This updated condo features an updated kitchen with newer cabinets, granite counters, gas cooktop & stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two nice-sized bedrooms with an updated full bath. Laundry hookup ready on the main level. One-car garage is attached (no direct access). Centrally located close to Great Lakes Crossing and freeway access. This is a great opportunity to own your own! Association fee includes water, trash, lawn and snow removal. Current assessment includes $170/month for 2026 to cover new attic insulation and new roof.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Attached garage
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• GAS COOKTOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LAUNDRY HOOKUP
• ATTACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (29.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $90,433 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,154
• List price: $127,500
• Delta: -7.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-33,778
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,619
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48360

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,542/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $90,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-174	+0% $-210	+5% $-246	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-262	+0% $-210	+5% $-158	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-177	base $-210	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3355 Thornwood Trl Orion Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	613	$1,317	$2.15	0d	19	0.62mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgassnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,500 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,500 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,500 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,500 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,500 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,500 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,500 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $127,500 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $130,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Amazing value! Stop renting an own your own home. This updated condo features an updated kitchen with newer cabinets, granite counters, gas cooktop & stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two nice-sized bedrooms with an updated full bath. Laundry hookup ready on the main level. One-car garage is attached (no direct access). Centrally located close to Great Lakes Crossing and freeway access. This is a great opportunity to own your own! Association fee includes water, trash, lawn and snow removal. Current assessment includes $170/month for 2026 to cover new attic insulation and new roof.

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $130,000 Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Amazing value! Stop renting an own your own home. This updated condo features an updated kitchen with newer cabinets, granite counters, gas cooktop & stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two nice-sized bedrooms with an updated full bath. Laundry hookup ready on the main level. One-car garage is attached (no direct access). Centrally located close to Great Lakes Crossing and freeway access. This is a great opportunity to own your own! Association fee includes water, trash, lawn and snow removal. Current assessment includes $170/month for 2026 to cover new attic insulation and new roof.

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $130,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Amazing value! Stop renting an own your own home. This updated condo features an updated kitchen with newer cabinets, granite counters, gas cooktop & stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two nice-sized bedrooms with an updated full bath. Laundry hookup ready on the main level. One-car garage is attached (no direct access). Centrally located close to Great Lakes Crossing and freeway access. This is a great opportunity to own your own! Association fee includes water, trash, lawn and snow removal. Current assessment includes $170/month for 2026 to cover new attic insulation and new roof.

17. 2021-02-05
    soldstatus $123,500
18. 2020-12-16
    soldstatus $123,500 Sold
19. 2020-12-16
    soldstatus $123,500 Closed
20. 2020-11-15
    status Pending
21. 2020-11-15
    status Pending
22. 2020-11-08
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
23. 2020-11-08
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
24. 2020-10-29
    status Active
25. 2020-10-29
    status Active
26. 2020-10-27
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
27. 2020-10-27
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
28. 2020-10-19
    historical
29. 2020-10-19
    listed $123,500 Active
30. 2020-10-19
    historical
31. 2020-10-19
    listed $123,500 Active
32. 2020-09-15
    listed $125,000 Active
33. 2020-09-15
    listed $125,000 Active
34. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus $113,500 Sold
35. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus $113,500 Closed
36. 2018-09-07
    status Pending
37. 2018-09-07
    status Pending
38. 2018-08-28
    price $112,000
39. 2018-08-27
    price $112,000
40. 2018-08-13
    listed $115,000 Active
41. 2018-08-13
    listed $115,000 Active
42. 2016-08-15
    soldstatus $95,000
43. 2016-08-05
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold
44. 2016-08-05
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
45. 2016-06-15
    status Pending
46. 2016-06-15
    status Pending
47. 2016-06-12
    listed $94,900 Active
48. 2016-06-12
    listed $94,900 Active
49. 2008-06-13
    historical
50. 2007-06-22
    listed $50,691

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,542 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$1,542
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,401
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.18%
• Current HPI: 180.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+154.9% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Listed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $130,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-16 Sold (MLS) $123,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-16 Sold (MLS) $123,500 REALCOMP
• 2020-11-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-11-08 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-08 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-29 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-29 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-27 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-27 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-19 Listed $123,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-19 Listed $123,500 REALCOMP
• 2020-09-15 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-09-15 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-10-17 Sold (MLS) $113,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-17 Sold (MLS) $113,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-09-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-08-28 Price Changed $112,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-27 Price Changed $112,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-13 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-13 Listed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-05 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-08-05 Sold (MLS) $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-06-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-06-12 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-12 Listed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-06-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-06-22 Listed $50,691 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-05-04 Listed $82,000 REALCOMP
• 2001-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records
• 1997-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $71,900 Public Records
• 1994-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,542 · -31.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.