10 E South Stage Rd · Medford, OR 97501

$159,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1 sqft · Other public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1999

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the charm of this all-ages manufactured home in San George Estates Park, immersed in an array of fantastic park amenities. Step onto the welcoming covered front porch, relax in the living room featuring a cozy electric fireplace, and enjoy a kitchen with ample cupboard space and an adjoining dining area. Find solace in the primary bedroom with its private bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a laundry room with an exterior entry leading to the carport. Don't forget the convenience of a nicely sized storage shed. Enjoy numerous community amenities, including a rec room, playground, walking trail, and swimming pool. This home also offers easy access to nearby restaurants, wineries, and the Centennial Golf Club.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Shed
• Paved parking

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• UTILITY ROOM
• SPA LIKE MASTER BATH
• SHED
• PAVED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.44%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,139
• Equity at exit: $23,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $56,736
• Equity at exit: $13,791

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,392/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $159,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1043 Tamara Cir Medford, OR	3.0	2.5	2746	$3,150	$1.15	44d	1	1.18mi
1001 Olympic Ave Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	44d	1	1.32mi
3007 Juanipero Way Unit 3007 Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	988	$1,595	$1.61	44d	1	1.34mi
2453 Republic Way Medford, OR	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.38mi
3126 Alameda St Medford, OR	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,100	$1.22	13d	1	1.39mi
889 Morrison Ave Medford, OR	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,495	$1.51	21d	1	1.40mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	21d	1	1.41mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	13d	1	1.41mi
3141 Alameda St Medford, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$2,107	$1.56	13d	6	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,500 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 213-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $159,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$2,392
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable income: $5,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $6,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-92.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $159,500 FSBO.com
• 2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RMLS
• 2024-01-29 Listed $150,000 RMLS
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2016-04-18 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSCO
• 2016-02-29 Listed $85,000 MLSCO
• 2010-05-05 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2010-05-04 Listed $79,900 MLSCO
• 2008-02-01 Sold (MLS) $56,500 MLSCO
• 2007-05-01 Listed $61,900 MLSCO
• 2006-08-14 Listed $75,000 MLSCO
• 2006-07-28 Listed $42,000 MLSCO
• 2003-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-12 Listed $59,900 MLSCO
• 2002-07-11 Listed $65,900 MLSCO
• 2002-04-01 Listed $59,000 MLSCO
• 2002-03-01 Listed $74,900 MLSCO
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $72,821 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.