Plan 1361 Modeled Plan · Maxwell, TX 78656

$223,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Granite kitchen countertops * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Den * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned basketball court * Planned park * Planned playground * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses

Key facts

• Gas range
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 95 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $223,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,939.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 81d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,909 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.02%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,939
• List price: $223,995
• Delta: -26.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
702 Cliff Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	0mo	$272,990	$193	83
408 Cliff Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	8mo	$249,890	$177	67
613 Cliff Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+12%)	2mo	$278,615	$183	67
372 Jade St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+6%)	1mo	$263,760	$182	66
415 Cliff Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+10%)	4mo	$271,365	$181	61
127 Tempest Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-10%)	4mo	$238,310	$194	60
505 Cliff Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	5mo	$252,365	$210	59
319 Haywood Mnr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-10%)	3mo	$238,310	$194	58
273 Estallo Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-10%)	5mo	$242,110	$197	56
317 Pond Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+10%)	6mo	$271,990	$181	54
606 Aplite Pass	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-4%)	7mo	$225,000	$172	53
627 Alterra Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,207 (-11%)	4mo	$189,990	$157	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-69,356
• Equity at exit: $73,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-109,275
• Equity at exit: $76,356

Cash invested: $85,103 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 102 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.9 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,900 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,559/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,659

Max offer price $211,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-430	-5% $-535	+0% $-640	+5% $-745	+10% $-850
Rent	-10% $-786	-5% $-713	+0% $-640	+5% $-567	+10% $-494
Rate	-1.0pp $-487	-0.5pp $-562	base $-640	+0.5pp $-718	+1.0pp $-799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,985
• Closing costs: $9,118
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	100d	1	0.26mi
390 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1721	$1,845	$1.07	29d	1	0.26mi
474 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,495	$0.90	29d	1	0.27mi
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1265	$1,249	$0.99	2d	12	0.29mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	119d	1	0.30mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	100d	1	0.30mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	113d	1	0.30mi
131 Heather Glen Way Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1841	$1,795	$0.98	42d	1	0.31mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	100d	1	0.33mi
140 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,795	$1.08	9d	1	0.33mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,800	$1.06	94d	1	0.34mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	139d	1	0.34mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,795	$1.06	67d	1	0.34mi
129 Bright Flora Ln Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,650	$1.06	42d	1	0.35mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	139d	1	0.36mi
131 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1796	$1,840	$1.02	83d	1	0.36mi
160 Light Timber Rd Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	76d	1	0.36mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,799	$1.01	9d	1	0.37mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,850	$1.04	64d	1	0.37mi
171 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,750	$1.12	60d	1	0.37mi
203 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,645	$1.06	67d	1	0.38mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,745	$1.14	78d	1	0.38mi
202 Peridot Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,649	$1.17	82d	1	0.38mi
202 Peridot Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,649	$1.15	80d	1	0.38mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	113d	1	0.38mi
187 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,799	$1.01	9d	1	0.39mi
187 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,995	$1.12	67d	1	0.39mi
229 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,575	$1.03	9d	1	0.40mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	113d	1	0.40mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	100d	1	0.40mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,775	$1.05	80d	1	0.40mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	83d	1	0.40mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,694	$0.89	2d	16	0.42mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	139d	1	0.45mi
195 Bracken Ln Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$1,800	$0.98	29d	1	0.55mi
614 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,000	$1.26	6d	1	0.71mi
1259 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,695	$1.11	113d	1	0.75mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,771	$1.10	0d	12	0.80mi
242 Surrey Oaks Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	83d	1	0.83mi
158 Surrey Oaks Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	83d	1	0.88mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as 403 Aurora Dr, Maxwell TX 78656Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $230,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new-construction plan (Plan 1361 Modeled)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,361 (model/home plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Plan 1361 Modeled)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $223,995 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $223,995 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $223,995 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $223,995 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $223,995 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $223,995 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $223,995 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $223,995 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $223,995 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $223,995 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $223,995 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $223,995 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $223,995 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $223,995 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $223,995 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $223,995 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $223,995 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $223,995 Active 72 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $221,995 Active 71 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $221,995 Active 70 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $221,995 Active 69 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $221,995 Active 68 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on market $221,995 Active 66 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $218,995 Active 65 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $218,995 Active 64 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $218,995 Active 63 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $218,995 Active 62 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $218,995 Active 61 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $218,995 Active 60 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $218,995 Active 59 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $218,995 Active 58 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $218,995 Active 57 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $218,995 Active 56 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $218,995 Active 55 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $218,995 Active 54 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $218,995 Active 53 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $218,995 Active 52 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $218,995 Active 51 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $218,995 Active 50 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $218,995 Active 49 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $218,995 Active 47 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $218,995 Active 46 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $218,995 Active 45 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $218,995 Active 44 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $218,995 Active 41 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $218,995 Active 40 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $218,995 Active 39 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $218,995 Active 38 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $218,995 Active 36 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $222,995 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,025
• − Property taxes: −$4,559
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$8,842
• Taxable loss: −$13,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,805–$20,415 screening

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Smart home integration and smart security would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and attracts buyers ↑
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances curb appeal and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Plum Creek El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Maxwell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
• City population: 2,847
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

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Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as 403 Aurora Dr, Maxwell TX 78656Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $230,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new-construction plan (Plan 1361 Modeled)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,361 (model/home plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Plan 1361 Modeled)