1045 Back Forest Ln · Woodville, FL 32305

$175,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location that backs to the Apalachicola Forest just off old Woodville Hwy. This private setting offers both a 3-bedroom 2 bath double-wide mobile home & a 1 bedroom 1 bath modular home, all on one-acre landscaped corner lot. The main home floor plan features a split bedroom plan with 2 separate living areas, fireplace, a fully equipped kitchen, dining and utility area too. Completely fenced with a gated entry, a 2-car carport, rear covered porch, storage building and more. The 1 bedroom 1 bath 2009 built modular home with 560 SF, is currently rented month to month at $650 per month. Perfect for in-law/ guests or keep as a rental. It features a fully equipped kitchen, living room

Key facts

• Rear covered porch
• Split bedroom plan
• Gated entry

Tags

• LANDSCAPED CORNER LOT
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• GATED ENTRY
• REAR COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces; Gated parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Double wide mobile home
• Construction: Double wide construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Private maintained road; Unimproved road surface; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (9x10); Bedroom 3 (9x10); Bedroom 4 (10x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Wood heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Garden tub / Roman tub; Stall shower; Pantry; Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s); Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $176k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Woodville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,235 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,046
• Equity at exit: $26,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,059
• Equity at exit: $15,174

Cash invested: $49,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32305

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$920
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,632/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $175,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,875
• Closing costs: $5,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,500 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,500 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,500 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,500 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,500 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,500 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,500 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,500 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,500 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,500 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,500 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,500 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active
17. 2026-05-11
    status Active
18. 2026-05-11
    status Active
19. 2026-05-11
    price $179,500
20. 2026-05-11
    price $179,500
21. 2026-05-11
    price $179,500
22. 2026-05-11
    historical
23. 2026-05-11
    historical
24. 2026-05-11
    price $185,000
25. 2026-05-11
    historical
26. 2026-05-11
    price $185,000
27. 2026-04-29
    listed $185,000 Active
28. 2026-04-29
    historical
29. 2026-04-15
    listed $185,000
30. 2018-01-01
    historical
31. 2017-06-05
    listed $115,000
32. 2016-11-03
    historical
33. 2016-10-19
    listed $127,500
34. 2016-10-10
    historical
35. 2016-07-05
    listed $129,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,831
• − Property taxes: −$2,632
• − Insurance: −$878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$5,105
• Taxable loss: −$494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through painting, landscaping, and kitchen/bathroom updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the lawn appear dry
• Minor Fencing — Some sections of the fence appear slightly worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and irrigation — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some areas of the lawn appear dry	Minor	$500–3,000
Fencing · Some sections of the fence appear slightly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodville, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,384
• Household income: $48,045
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 654.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 218.4834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+38.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $179,500 CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $179,500 CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $179,500 CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $185,000 CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $185,000 CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $185,000 CATRS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $185,000 CATRS
• 2018-01-01 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2017-06-05 Listed $115,000 CATRS
• 2016-11-03 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2016-10-19 Listed $127,500 CATRS
• 2016-10-10 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2016-07-05 Listed $129,700 CATRS