436 Mccoy Ave · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 1998 Average condition 19 ac lot Est $225k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 436 McCoy Avean excellent opportunity to own in a family-friendly, all-age community in Santa Rosa. This well-located park offers a welcoming environment with open green space, nearby play areas, and a true neighborhood feelperfect for a variety of buyers. Ideally situated with quick access to Hwy 101, this home provides convenient commuting while being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. The location between Santa Rosa and Rohnert Park makes it especially appealing for accessibility and lifestyle. Homes in this community typically offer comfortable layouts with spacious living areas, and the park itself sits on a large shared parcel, giving a more open an

Key facts

• Open green space
• Large shared parcel
• Nearby play areas

Tags

• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• NEARBY PLAY AREAS
• QUICK ACCESS TO HWY 101
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING
• LARGE SHARED PARCEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,020; Land lease: No (property listed as not land-lease?)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide unit; Infinity II model by Champion Home Builders
• Construction: Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Located in Santa Rosa Mobile Estates park; Lot approximately 19.40 acres (not verified)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laundry hookups only; Double sinks in baths; Tub with shower over
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (hookups only)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.05%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Frisbie Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	4mo	$225,000	$180	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $351
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $49,352
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $768	-5% $687	+0% $606	+5% $525	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $494	+0% $606	+5% $717	+10% $829
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $666	base $606	+0.5pp $545	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,145	$2.12	14d	1	0.56mi
524 Court St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.5	1171	$2,750	$2.35	14d	1	0.89mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	14d	10	1.09mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	14d	6	1.21mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	14d	1	1.38mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	14d	1	1.38mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	14d	1	1.38mi
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$3,526	$3.08	14d	15	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $235,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $255,000
19. 2026-04-21
    price $265,000
20. 2026-04-08
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,710
• − Management: −$2,710
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $3,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$901
• After-tax cash flow: $6,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate Interior paint — Faded appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and durability
• Resale Replace dated kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal
• Resale Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior paint · Faded appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Resale Replace dated kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal ↑
• Resale Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $255,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $265,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $275,000 BAREIS