4653 Lake Villa Dr Unit B · Pinellas Park, FL 33762

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 805 sqft · Condo public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1976 $641/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community featuring an in-ground pool, clubhouse, shuffleboard court, community activities & laundry facilities. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and a small dinette area. The bedrooms are good sized and the master has 2 closets. The grounds are well maintained and The Lakes is centrally located near I-275, close to shopping and less than 30 minutes to the beach. Room dimensions are approx. Buyers should verify if this is a determining factor in purchase.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Walk to restaurants
• Bike paths

Tags

• WALK TO RESTAURANTS
• FREEDOM LAKE PARK
• PARK AMENITIES
• BIKE PATHS
• WALKING TRAILS
• PICNIC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association approval required for purchases or transfers
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee required; HOA covers cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, and water; Association amenities: clubhouse, laundry, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Deed restrictions; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Sidewalks and street lights; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway parking; Guest parking; Reserved parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story; Northwest-facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Concrete and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Gunite in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room/dining room combination; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry (none in-unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-677/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pinellas Central Elementary School (math 51% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 64% FRL); Fitzgerald Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,033 students, 62% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-29,460
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-48,826
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33762

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$641
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $119,932

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-20	+0% $-56	+5% $-93	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-126	+0% $-56	+5% $13	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-23	base $-56	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9911 Dahlia St #38 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	10d	1	0.39mi
5200 Springwood Blvd Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	0d	4	0.49mi
9505 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,273	$2.17	0d	20	0.52mi
10321 Larchmont Pl N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	26d	1	0.64mi
10770 US Highway 19 N #605 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	0.69mi
4973 91st Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	16d	1	0.80mi
4973 91st Ave Unit 12 (C) Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	17d	1	0.80mi
4701 88th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,853	$2.17	13d	20	0.87mi
5501 110th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,979	$1.98	0d	13	0.95mi
5641 94th Ter N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$2,200	$2.06	10d	1	0.96mi
8851 US Highway 19 N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,275	$2.29	0d	24	1.02mi
4940 87th Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	26d	1	1.07mi
4355 84th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	4d	10	1.18mi
8400 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,749	$2.47	0d	21	1.20mi
5865 92nd Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,400	$2.26	20d	1	1.27mi
6132 100th Cir N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.0	901	$1,995	$2.21	26d	1	1.38mi
6132 100th Cir N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.0	901	$1,995	$2.21	0d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $641 · $7,692/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $129,900
16. 2026-03-01
    listed $134,900 Active
17. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus $123,400
18. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus $70,000
19. 2018-08-13
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community featuring an in-ground pool, clubhouse, shuffleboard court, community activities & laundry facilities. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and a small dinette area. The bedrooms are good sized and the master has 2 closets. The grounds are well maintained and The Lakes is centrally located near I-275, close to shopping and less than 30 minutes to the beach. Room dimensions are approx. Buyers should verify if this is a determining factor in purchase.

20. 2018-07-10
    status Pending 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community featuring an in-ground pool, clubhouse, shuffleboard court, community activities & laundry facilities. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and a small dinette area. The bedrooms are good sized and the master has 2 closets. The grounds are well maintained and The Lakes is centrally located near I-275, close to shopping and less than 30 minutes to the beach. Room dimensions are approx. Buyers should verify if this is a determining factor in purchase.

21. 2018-07-03
    listed $74,900 Active 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community featuring an in-ground pool, clubhouse, shuffleboard court, community activities & laundry facilities. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and a small dinette area. The bedrooms are good sized and the master has 2 closets. The grounds are well maintained and The Lakes is centrally located near I-275, close to shopping and less than 30 minutes to the beach. Room dimensions are approx. Buyers should verify if this is a determining factor in purchase.

22. 2015-08-31
    soldstatus $46,000
23. 2015-08-24
    soldstatus $46,000 Sold 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community the features an in-ground heated pool, a clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, community activities and laundry facility. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and counter top space, small dinette area. The bedrooms are also good size and the master bedroom has two closets. The grounds are very well maintained and the Lakes Villas is centrally located near the I-275 interstate, close to shopping, restaurants and less than 30 minutes to the beaches. A great opportunity at an affordable price.

24. 2015-08-07
    status Pending 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community the features an in-ground heated pool, a clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, community activities and laundry facility. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and counter top space, small dinette area. The bedrooms are also good size and the master bedroom has two closets. The grounds are very well maintained and the Lakes Villas is centrally located near the I-275 interstate, close to shopping, restaurants and less than 30 minutes to the beaches. A great opportunity at an affordable price.

25. 2015-07-14
    historical Contingent - Inspections 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community the features an in-ground heated pool, a clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, community activities and laundry facility. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and counter top space, small dinette area. The bedrooms are also good size and the master bedroom has two closets. The grounds are very well maintained and the Lakes Villas is centrally located near the I-275 interstate, close to shopping, restaurants and less than 30 minutes to the beaches. A great opportunity at an affordable price.

26. 2015-06-17
    price $44,900 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community the features an in-ground heated pool, a clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, community activities and laundry facility. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and counter top space, small dinette area. The bedrooms are also good size and the master bedroom has two closets. The grounds are very well maintained and the Lakes Villas is centrally located near the I-275 interstate, close to shopping, restaurants and less than 30 minutes to the beaches. A great opportunity at an affordable price.

27. 2015-05-18
    listed $49,900 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    The Lakes Villas is a terrific 55 plus community the features an in-ground heated pool, a clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, community activities and laundry facility. This unit offers a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and counter top space, small dinette area. The bedrooms are also good size and the master bedroom has two closets. The grounds are very well maintained and the Lakes Villas is centrally located near the I-275 interstate, close to shopping, restaurants and less than 30 minutes to the beaches. A great opportunity at an affordable price.

28. 1989-01-26
    soldstatus $43,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$140/yr (+$12/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 38% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$7,692
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$599
• After-tax cash flow: $-78/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pinellas Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #2546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinellas Park, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 50,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,063
• Household income: $87,461
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.83%
• Current HPI: 264.2599
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+197.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $123,400 Public Records
• 2018-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-13 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-03 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-24 Sold (MLS) $46,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-14 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-17 Price Changed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-18 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $43,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.