120 W 3rd St · Adrian, MO 64720

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Other public records · 354 Days on market

Built 1937 0.32 ac lot $14/sqft · 92% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice, large level treed lot offering excellent value and flexibility. The 100’ x 140’ parcel may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an ideal opportunity for builders or investors. The lot sits next to a well-maintained older home and is surrounded by established properties. An existing structure is on site but has no contributory value and will require a complete tear-down. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Floor plans are available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1937
• Listed 354 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 58.5% vs local median 2.5% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#102 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Adrian R-III (rural): math 28% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #167 of 324 in MO (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Bates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($104 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bates County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 354 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $13,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 354 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 58.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 186.30%
• DSCR: 9.29
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,960
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -91.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.84×
• Total profit: $49,722
• Equity at exit: $13,513

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.10×
• Total profit: $113,811
• Equity at exit: $29,142

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64720

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $389/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $149

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $15,000 Pending 354 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $15,000 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 349 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $15,000 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   price $15,000 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,900 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,900 Active 341 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 340 DOM
13. 2026-01-22
    price $24,900 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Nice, large level treed lot that may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an excellent value. The 100’ x 140’ parcel sits next to a well-maintained older home in an established area. The existing structure has no contributory value, is beyond repair, and is a complete tear-down—the value is in the two potential lots only. No value has been placed on the existing home. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Build your own home or we have floor plans available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

14. 2026-01-22
    price $24,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Nice, large level treed lot that may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an excellent value. The 100’ x 140’ parcel sits next to a well-maintained older home in an established area. The existing structure has no contributory value, is beyond repair, and is a complete tear-down—the value is in the two potential lots only. No value has been placed on the existing home. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Build your own home or we have floor plans available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

15. 2025-12-27
    listed $29,900 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Nice, large level treed lot offering excellent value and flexibility. The 100’ x 140’ parcel may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an ideal opportunity for builders or investors. The lot sits next to a well-maintained older home and is surrounded by established properties. An existing structure is on site but has no contributory value and will require a complete tear-down. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Floor plans are available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

16. 2025-12-01
    status Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Nice, large level treed lot that may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an excellent value. The 100’ x 140’ parcel sits next to a well-maintained older home in an established area. The existing structure has no contributory value, is beyond repair, and is a complete tear-down—the value is in the two potential lots only. No value has been placed on the existing home. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Build your own home or we have floor plans available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

17. 2025-11-30
    historical 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Nice, large level treed lot that may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an excellent value. The 100’ x 140’ parcel sits next to a well-maintained older home in an established area. The existing structure has no contributory value, is beyond repair, and is a complete tear-down—the value is in the two potential lots only. No value has been placed on the existing home. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Build your own home or we have floor plans available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

18. 2025-06-24
    listed $29,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Nice, large level treed lot that may be split for two new homes (buyer to verify), making it an excellent value. The 100’ x 140’ parcel sits next to a well-maintained older home in an established area. The existing structure has no contributory value, is beyond repair, and is a complete tear-down—the value is in the two potential lots only. No value has been placed on the existing home. Property is being sold as-is in its present condition. Build your own home or we have floor plans available, and build-to-suit options are offered—ask for details.

19. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $389 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $389 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$389
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $8,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,938
• After-tax cash flow: $5,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian R-III
• NCES district ID: 2902850
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,790
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5581
• State rank: #167 of 324 in MO

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #6848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,358

Population outlook (Bates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,295 people
• By 2030: 14,644 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 13,282 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 11,944 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 9,442 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 7,372 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bates

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.7% · R 80.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+54.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.86%
• Current HPI: 293.132
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $24,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $24,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listed $29,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $29,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $389 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.