Plan 3504 Plan · Surprise, AZ 85387

$406,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,063 sqft · SingleFamily · 299 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this modern two-story home offering versatile spaces and contemporary living. . Upon entering, find a versatile pocket office ideal for remote work, homework space, or family planning. The spacious great room lends to the open concept making the space perfect for gatherings and leisure. The chef's dream kitchen boasts an island, stainless steel appliances, abundance of counterspace and walk-in pantry, while the adjacent dining area provides a convenient setting for meals. Retreat outside to the covered patio with the option to extend for outdoor entertaining. On the second level are four comfortable bedrooms, including a luxurious primary suite featuring an en-suite bath with dual sinks, oversized shower, and large walk-in closet, and convenient laundry room. Designed for relaxation and practicality, this home is ideal for those looking for more space.

Key facts

• Pocket office
• Outdoor entertaining
• Chef's dream kitchen

Tags

• POCKET OFFICE
• GREAT ROOM
• CHEF'S DREAM KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

🏗️ New construction. The $406,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $435,359.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $407k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,671 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,359
• List price: $406,990
• Delta: -6.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22631 W Irma Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,113 (+2%)	1mo	$390,000	$185	91
22645 W Irma Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,113 (+2%)	1mo	$420,000	$199	90
22665 W Pontiac Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,014 (-2%)	0mo	$425,000	$211	87
22471 W Pontiac Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,139 (+4%)	1mo	$399,990	$187	83
20622 N 225th Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,284 (+11%)	1mo	$449,990	$197	75
20654 N 225th Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,284 (+11%)	1mo	$454,990	$199	75
22361 W Irma Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-11%)	1mo	$389,990	$212	69
22358 W Irma Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-11%)	1mo	$404,650	$220	68
22644 W Pontiac Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,342 (+14%)	0mo	$459,990	$196	68
22611 W Pontiac Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-11%)	1mo	$398,990	$216	67
22641 W Pontiac Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,342 (+14%)	1mo	$453,990	$194	66
22975 W Monona Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,181 (+6%)	0mo	$390,990	$179	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-139,624
• Equity at exit: $64,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-224,013
• Equity at exit: $37,642

Cash invested: $121,901 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.1 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $412,990 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 153 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$544 /mo · $6,530/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-1,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,808

Max offer price $289,983

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-704	-5% $-854	+0% $-1,005	+5% $-1,155	+10% $-1,306
Rent	-10% $-1,205	-5% $-1,105	+0% $-1,005	+5% $-904	+10% $-804
Rate	-1.0pp $-785	-0.5pp $-894	base $-1,005	+0.5pp $-1,117	+1.0pp $-1,232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,840
• Closing costs: $13,061
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23011 W Potter Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,500	$1.20	2d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $406,990 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $406,990 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $406,990 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $406,990 Active 296 DOM
5. 2025-08-08
   listed $406,990 Active 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   Discover this modern two-story home offering versatile spaces and contemporary living. . Upon entering, find a versatile pocket office ideal for remote work, homework space, or family planning. The spacious great room lends to the open concept making the space perfect for gatherings and leisure. The chef's dream kitchen boasts an island, stainless steel appliances, abundance of counterspace and walk-in pantry, while the adjacent dining area provides a convenient setting for meals. Retreat outside to the covered patio with the option to extend for outdoor entertaining. On the second level are four comfortable bedrooms, including a luxurious primary suite featuring an en-suite bath with dual sinks, oversized shower, and large walk-in closet, and convenient laundry room. Designed for relaxation and practicality, this home is ideal for those looking for more space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,387
• − Property taxes: −$6,530
• − Insurance: −$2,177
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − Depreciation: −$12,665
• Taxable loss: −$20,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,845
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,315–$30,945 screening

This modern two-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the curb appeal and resale value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and inviting. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Festival Foothills Elementary School D- AZ #308/1,109 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Vulture Peak Middle School F AZ #84/218 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Wickenburg High School F AZ #120/381 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-08 Listed $406,990 Zillow