238 Justice Ln · New Castle Northwest, PA 16105

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,202 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1969 0.50 ac lot Est $273k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

Key facts

• Brand-new deck
• Brick fireplace
• Slate hearth

Tags

• ANDERSEN DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• FRENCH DOORS
• BRAND-NEW DECK
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• SLATE HEARTH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story layout; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Asphalt roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot (approx. 0.5 acres); Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 217

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Some gas appliances
• Bedrooms: Main level: two bedrooms (each about 11x11); Lower level: two bedrooms (one about 17x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with walk-up access; Two wood-burning fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Lower-level laundry room (approx. 18x11)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-388/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in New Castle Northwest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#111 in PA, #870 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Neshannock Township SD (rural): math 38% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #133 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $270k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $228,200 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,048
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
254 W Parkside Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0	2,013 (-9%)	0mo	$550,500	$273	56
3335 Long Branch Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,890 (-14%)	13mo	$461,000	$244	40
4190 Mitchell Rd	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,340 (+6%)	19mo	$290,000	$124	37
3281 Mercer Rd	0.75mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-13%)	5mo	$115,000	$60	30
309 E Boyles Ave	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (+9%)	20mo	$71,500	$30	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,781
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,456
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16105

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,688/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,323

Max offer price $264,181

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $44	+0% $-32	+5% $-109	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-123	+0% $-32	+5% $58	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $36	base $-32	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3506 Meadowview Blvd New Castle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,282	$1.90	14d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Contingent
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2019-05-02
   soldstatus $150,900
4. 2019-04-26
   status Under Contract 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

5. 2019-04-26
   soldstatus $158,900 Sold 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

6. 2019-03-19
   historical Contingent 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

7. 2019-03-14
   listed $159,900 Active 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

8. 2019-03-14
   historical Expired 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

9. 2019-01-16
   price $169,900 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

10. 2018-12-12
    status Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

11. 2018-11-27
    historical Contingent 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

12. 2018-11-17
    listed $174,900 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF THIS WELL CONSTRUCTED 3 BEDROOM HOME WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO NESHANNOCK SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE Y-ZONE, HESS ICE RINK AND PEARSON PARK. 2 WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES ONE IN LIVINGROOM AND ONE IN FAMILY ROOM WITH INSERT. LAUNDRY ROOM NOT JUST LAUNDRY AREA AND OFFICE OR MANCAVE ALSO IN BASEMENT. NICE SIZED BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS ON MAIN LEVEL. DECK AREA AS WELL AS PATIO ON A LITTLE OVER 1/2 ACRE LEVEL LOT. SHED FOR STORAGE AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. VERY COMFORTABLE HOME.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,976 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,688
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neshannock Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4216440
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,658
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2536
• State rank: #133 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle Northwest

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #870

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,195

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.26%
• Current HPI: 173.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+54.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $269,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $150,900 Public Records
• 2019-04-26 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2019-04-26 Sold (MLS) $158,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-03-19 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2019-03-14 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2019-03-14 Listed $159,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-01-16 Price Changed $169,900 West Penn MLS
• 2018-12-12 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2018-11-27 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2018-11-17 Listed $174,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,688 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.