3 Julie Ave · Missoula, MT 59808

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition $640/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Additional parking

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ADDITIONAL PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Association fee $640 monthly; Association amenities include parking; Association fee includes water, sewer, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Association provides parking
• Utilities: Water included in association fee; Sewer included in association fee; Trash included in association fee; Land is leased
• Home design: Manufactured home (Single Wide); Residential property
• Construction: Foundation: see remarks
• Exterior features: Located in a mobile home park; Additional parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 1.7% in Missoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#17 in MT, #2,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Missoula H S (urban): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #53 of 116 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 773 units permitted in Missoula County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Missoula County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.25%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $470,592
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 Mary Jane Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+4%)	4mo	$465,000	$369	73
2629 Mary Jane Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+2%)	4mo	$514,000	$414	70
3005 Mary Jane Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+4%)	7mo	$450,000	$357	70
2960 Sheffield Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	9mo	$515,000	$397	67
3814 Standish Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+10%)	9mo	$524,900	$392	66
2920 Sheffield Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	11mo	$529,000	$408	66
3817 Concord Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+7%)	12mo	$525,000	$404	65
4328 Bantry Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,255 (+3%)	1mo	$429,000	$342	61
15 Pamela St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	7mo	$20,000	$19	59
2987 Mary Jane Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+13%)	6mo	$449,900	$328	56
3086 Stratford Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+13%)	10mo	$530,000	$386	51
2259 Depot Way	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,344 (+10%)	1mo	$520,000	$387	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $17,061
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $54,442
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59808

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$640
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3705 England Blvd Missoula, MT	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,525	$1.98	43d	1	0.37mi
3735 W Broadway St Missoula, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,600	$2.48	43d	6	0.50mi
4000 Mullan Rd Missoula, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,995	$2.88	43d	8	0.78mi
2175 Sagebrush Rd Missoula, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$3,116	$2.95	43d	128	0.84mi
2620 George Elmer Dr Missoula, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,700	$2.31	43d	35	1.15mi
5306 Elyn Loop Missoula, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$2,065	$2.32	43d	35	1.34mi
4710 Expressway Missoula, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,375	$1.76	43d	4	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $640 · $7,680/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $99,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $110,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,359
• After-tax cash flow: $5,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and exterior paint, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear visible in the independent image.
• Major exterior siding — Severe peeling and weathering of the siding.
• Major exterior paint — Severe peeling and weathering of the exterior paint.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and poorly maintained landscaping.
• Major curb appeal — Low curb appeal due to lack of maintenance and overgrown landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Replace the roof — A new roof will protect the home from water damage and improve its overall condition.
• Both Trim and maintain the landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear visible in the independent image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe peeling and weathering of the siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Severe peeling and weathering of the exterior paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and poorly maintained landscaping.	Major	$15,000–50,000
curb appeal · Low curb appeal due to lack of maintenance and overgrown landscaping.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Replace the roof — A new roof will protect the home from water damage and improve its overall condition. ↑
• Both Trim and maintain the landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Missoula H S
• NCES district ID: 3018540
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,814
• Composite: 34.87/100
• National rank: #5087
• State rank: #53 of 116 in MT

Livability — Missoula

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #2351

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missoula, MT
• County: Missoula County · 100,878 people
• City population: 100,878
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $80,239
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1022.0

Population outlook (Missoula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,248 people
• By 2030: 133,571 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 144,833 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 156,753 · +23.2%
• By 2075: 189,373 · +48.8%
• By 2100: 217,637 · +71.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Missoula

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.4) · D 59.0% · R 37.5% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.7pp · 2024: 21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.4 2020: D+23.6 2016: D+15.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.87%
• Current HPI: 269.9288
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $110,000 MRMLS