115 Jefferson St · Crooked Lake Park, FL 33859

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1960 9,601 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. $13,000 price drop! Welcome to 115 Jefferson Street, a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Lake Wales, Florida. This property boasts an expansive backyard, perfect for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the open space. A standout feature is the spacious shed, providing ample storage for tools, equipment, or hobbies. Inside, the home offers a well-designed split-bedroom layout, solid wood cabinets, and elegant stone counters, adding both style and functionality. With its generous outdoor space and convenient storage, this home is a fantastic opportunity for those looking for comfort and versatility in a peaceful setting

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Solid wood cabinets
• Spacious shed

Tags

• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS SHED
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• STONE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#766 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frostproof Ben Hill Griffin Jr Elementary School (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 917 students, 66% FRL); Frostproof Middle/Senior High (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,150 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,309
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,620
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33859

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,210/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $323	+0% $279	+5% $235	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $212	+0% $279	+5% $346	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $319	base $279	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $155,000
3. 2025-11-03
   listed $168,000 Active
4. 2025-07-30
   historical
5. 2025-05-05
   status Active
6. 2025-04-23
   status Pending
7. 2025-02-07
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,210 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,210 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,210
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crooked Lake Park

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #17131

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crooked Lake Park, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,824
• Household income: $57,760
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.19%
• Current HPI: 267.4537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Listed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,210 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.