Is 2319 Red Bird Trce in Lockhart, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.2% cap rate and $-453/mo modeled cash flow at a $263,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2319 Red Bird Trce?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,799/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.03

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.4/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Schools +3.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +0.7/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$263,990

2319 Red Bird Trce · Lockhart, TX 78644

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,052 sqft lot 1-car garage $228/sqft · 22% below area Est $338k · 22% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Lantana community in Lockhart, Texas. This 1,156 square foot home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Our homes in Lantana feature front masonry exteriors, and the Atlanta is available in 2 exterior options. Step inside the Atlanta and enter the heart of the home, the open concept living space. The kitchen, dining and living room are intentionally designed for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42' upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances. The secondary bedrooms are located off the kitchen, as well as a secondary bathroom and utility room. The bedrooms include carpet and closets with wood shelving. The secondary bathroom has a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out at the end of the day in this owner's retreat, which includes a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a large walk-in closet. This home features our America's Smart Home base package, which includes the Video Front Doorbell, Front Door Deadbolt Lock, Home Hub, Thermostat, and Smart Switch. Contact us today and find your home at Lantana.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Kitchen island
Pantry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (24.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (31.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $180k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,887 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.23%
Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
DSCR: 0.67
GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $337,674
List price: $263,990
Delta: -21.82%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Varner Way	2.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,130 (-2%)	6mo	$219,990	$195	49
128 Langston Dr	2.13mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+24%)	0mo	$269,990	$188	40
219 Langston Dr	2.12mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+11%)	12mo	$289,990	$225	36
125 Kendall Ln	2.09mi	3/2.5	1,419 (+23%)	10mo	$239,990	$169	29
7029 Highway 142	1.96mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,010 (-13%)	35mo	$348,000	$345	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.1%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-71,589
Equity at exit: $39,362

10-year hold

IRR: -29.1%
Equity multiple: -0.34×
Total profit: $-99,276
Equity at exit: $22,825

Cash invested: $73,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
Median asking: $275,990 ($211/sqft)
Median days on market: 133 d
This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +38.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

Home prices YoY: -29.4%
Active inventory: 523
Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,799 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
Insurance: −$110
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $198,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-271	-5% $-362	+0% $-453	+5% $-544	+10% $-636
Rent	-10% $-595	-5% $-524	+0% $-453	+5% $-382	+10% $-311
Rate	-1.0pp $-320	-0.5pp $-386	base $-453	+0.5pp $-522	+1.0pp $-591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $65,998
Closing costs: $7,920
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory HOAAnnual HOA fee of $600Association transfer fee of $325

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Additional water/sewer information available
Home design: New construction by D.R. HortonBrick exteriorSlab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built by DR HORTONNewBrick exteriorSlab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Privacy fenceDouble pane windows

Interior

Kitchen: Island kitchenGas cookingStove/RangeMicrowave ovenDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (16 x 13)Bedroom 2 (11 x 111)Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bathroom with shower only and single vanity (12 x 11)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor plan with island kitchenLiving/dining room combination1 living areaAttic with partial flooring and pull-down stairsAttic with radiant barrier deckingLaundry in closet and separate laundry roomWalk-in closetsSmoke alarmGas water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry in closetSeparate laundry room

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $263,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $263,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $263,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $263,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $263,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $263,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $263,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $263,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $263,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $263,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $263,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $263,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $263,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $263,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $263,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $263,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $263,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $263,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $263,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $263,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $263,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $263,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $263,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $263,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $263,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $263,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $263,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $263,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $263,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $263,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $263,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $263,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $263,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $263,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $263,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $263,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $263,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $263,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $263,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $263,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $263,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $263,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $263,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $263,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $263,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-08

statusdays on market $263,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $263,990 New 10 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $263,990 New 7 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $263,990 New 6 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $263,990 New 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,586
− Mortgage interest: −$14,788
− Property taxes: −$3,960
− Insurance: −$1,320
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
− Management: −$1,727
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$7,680
Taxable loss: −$10,214

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,451
After-tax cash flow: $-2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed single-family home in Lockhart, Texas, is move-in ready with modern features and a clean, modern design. It is ideal for both resale and rental markets.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Clear Fork El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lockhart ISD
NCES district ID: 4827870
Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $48,868
Composite: 24.44/100
National rank: #7674
State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

Score: 67/100
State rank: #535
US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
City population: 22,348
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 22,348
Household income: $74,709
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,557 people
By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
Current HPI: 239.7906
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-28 Listed $263,990 LERA
2026-03-31 Listed $263,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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