7850 Auble Moody Rd · Semmes, AL 36587

$99,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2006 1.47 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living at its finest. Great neighborhood for a family that wants to get away from the hustle and bussel of city life. 3-bedroom, 2 full bath brick home. Big yard for entertaining and the kids to play. Private fenced in yard. ceramic tile and laminate flooring throughout the home. Great master and Kitchen that both have bay windows overlooking the property. 1.4 acres could possibly be more up to 3 acres. This is a great opportunity that cannot be passed up.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Bay windows
• Functional layout

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 1.4658 ACRES
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BAY WINDOWS
• LARGE YARD
• ROOM FOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available (110 volts); Phone available; Water available; Sewer available (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2006; Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Shutters on windows
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fencing; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast room; Country-style kitchen; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Crown molding; Disappearing attic stairs; His and hers closets; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Other appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $689 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,204 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.03%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,056
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7905 Auble Moody Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+5%)	6mo	$70,000	$47	81
7875 Ridge Crest Dr W	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (-15%)	16mo	$200,000	$166	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,364
• Equity at exit: $14,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $82,099
• Equity at exit: $8,620

Cash invested: $27,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36587

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$523
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $99,700

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $755	-5% $727	+0% $699	+5% $670	+10% $642
Rent	-10% $560	-5% $629	+0% $699	+5% $768	+10% $837
Rate	-1.0pp $749	-0.5pp $724	base $699	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,925
• Closing costs: $2,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,700 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $99,700 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $99,700 Pending 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,700 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,700 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,700 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,700 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,700 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-05-19
   listed $99,700 Active
10. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus $173,000
11. 2022-12-24
    soldstatus $179,000 Closed 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Country living at its finest. Great neighborhood for a family that wants to get away from the hustle and bussel of city life. 3-bedroom, 2 full bath brick home. Big yard for entertaining and the kids to play. Private fenced in yard. ceramic tile and laminate flooring throughout the home. Great master and Kitchen that both have bay windows overlooking the property. 1.4 acres could possibly be more up to 3 acres. This is a great opportunity that cannot be passed up.

12. 2022-11-22
    status Pending 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Country living at its finest. Great neighborhood for a family that wants to get away from the hustle and bussel of city life. 3-bedroom, 2 full bath brick home. Big yard for entertaining and the kids to play. Private fenced in yard. ceramic tile and laminate flooring throughout the home. Great master and Kitchen that both have bay windows overlooking the property. 1.4 acres could possibly be more up to 3 acres. This is a great opportunity that cannot be passed up.

13. 2022-11-15
    listed $170,000 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Country living at its finest. Great neighborhood for a family that wants to get away from the hustle and bussel of city life. 3-bedroom, 2 full bath brick home. Big yard for entertaining and the kids to play. Private fenced in yard. ceramic tile and laminate flooring throughout the home. Great master and Kitchen that both have bay windows overlooking the property. 1.4 acres could possibly be more up to 3 acres. This is a great opportunity that cannot be passed up.

14. 2016-03-09
    soldstatus $110,007

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,585
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$2,900
• Taxable income: $7,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $6,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,039

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.70%
• Current HPI: 282.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $99,700 GCMLS AL
• 2022-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-24 Sold (MLS) $179,000 GCMLS AL
• 2022-11-22 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2022-11-15 Listed $170,000 GCMLS AL
• 2016-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $110,007 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,498 · +115.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.