528 Fairway Oaks Dr · Hernando, MS 38632

$318,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,919 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $313k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNBELIEVABLY MAINTAINED AND COMES WITH AN AMAZING VIEW OF THE #1 TEE ON THE GOLF COURSE. THE ENTRY WELCOMES YOU WITH AN OPEN VIEW OF THE DINING ROOM AND GREAT ROOM BOTH OFFERING HARDWOOD FLOORS. THE GREAT ROOM ALSO FEATURES A FIREPLACE WITH GORGEOUS MANTLE. THE KITCHEN OFFERS A NICE BREAKFAST AREA AND PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE. THERE IS A NICE SUN ROOM JUST OFF THE GREAT ROOM THAT COMES WITH AN AMAZING VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE. THE MASTER BEDROOM OFFERS HARDWOOD FLOORS AND A PRIVATE SALON BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS AND WALK IN SHOWER. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME, YOU WILL FIND 2 MORE ADDITIONAL BEDROOMS AND A FULL BATH. OUT BACK YOU WILL FIND A LARGE COVERED DECK THAT OVERLOOKS THE BACK YARD AND GOLF COURSE.

Key facts

• Eat-in area
• Split floor plan
• Great room

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT ROOM
• EAT-IN AREA
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• BUILT IN CABINETS
• ENSUITE WITH DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,976 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,797
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
459 N Classic Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+4%)	4mo	$325,900	$163	78
549 N Classic Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (-3%)	11mo	$315,000	$169	77
523 Fairway Oaks Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,962 (+2%)	23mo	$309,900	$158	76
782 Fairway Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	5mo	$319,900	$178	74
163 Fairway Trace Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+0%)	7mo	$312,900	$163	70
462 Fairway Oaks Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-10%)	13mo	$312,000	$181	69
423 Fairway Oaks	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-9%)	16mo	$275,000	$157	67
905 Fairway Pointe Cv	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (-5%)	3mo	$294,900	$162	61
214 Fairway Trace Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,975 (+3%)	21mo	$318,000	$161	58
730 Palmer Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,124 (+11%)	18mo	$359,900	$169	52
676 Fairway Trl	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,199 (+15%)	16mo	$329,999	$150	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-37,576
• Equity at exit: $47,415

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-36,353
• Equity at exit: $27,495

Cash invested: $89,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,356

Max offer price $318,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $440	+0% $350	+5% $260	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $240	+0% $350	+5% $461	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $431	base $350	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,500
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
947 Clubhouse Dr Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,495	$1.46	44d	1	0.18mi
272 Fairway Trace Dr Lot $3800 Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,800	$1.90	44d	1	0.28mi
814 Byhalia Rd Hernando, MS	4.0	3.0	2531	$2,400	$0.95	2d	1	0.50mi
52 Forked Creek Pkwy Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,340	$1.02	44d	1	0.82mi
89 Shady Lane Cv E Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,650	$1.06	12d	1	0.96mi
1324 Biloxi St Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,950	$1.22	24d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $318,000 Under Contract 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $318,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $318,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $318,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $318,000 Active 1193-char remark
13. 2014-03-27
    soldstatus
14. 2014-03-24
    soldstatus 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    UNBELIEVABLY MAINTAINED AND COMES WITH AN AMAZING VIEW OF THE #1 TEE ON THE GOLF COURSE. THE ENTRY WELCOMES YOU WITH AN OPEN VIEW OF THE DINING ROOM AND GREAT ROOM BOTH OFFERING HARDWOOD FLOORS. THE GREAT ROOM ALSO FEATURES A FIREPLACE WITH GORGEOUS MANTLE. THE KITCHEN OFFERS A NICE BREAKFAST AREA AND PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE. THERE IS A NICE SUN ROOM JUST OFF THE GREAT ROOM THAT COMES WITH AN AMAZING VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE. THE MASTER BEDROOM OFFERS HARDWOOD FLOORS AND A PRIVATE SALON BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS AND WALK IN SHOWER. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME, YOU WILL FIND 2 MORE ADDITIONAL BEDROOMS AND A FULL BATH. OUT BACK YOU WILL FIND A LARGE COVERED DECK THAT OVERLOOKS THE BACK YARD AND GOLF COURSE.

15. 2014-02-11
    listed $177,500 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    UNBELIEVABLY MAINTAINED AND COMES WITH AN AMAZING VIEW OF THE #1 TEE ON THE GOLF COURSE. THE ENTRY WELCOMES YOU WITH AN OPEN VIEW OF THE DINING ROOM AND GREAT ROOM BOTH OFFERING HARDWOOD FLOORS. THE GREAT ROOM ALSO FEATURES A FIREPLACE WITH GORGEOUS MANTLE. THE KITCHEN OFFERS A NICE BREAKFAST AREA AND PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE. THERE IS A NICE SUN ROOM JUST OFF THE GREAT ROOM THAT COMES WITH AN AMAZING VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE. THE MASTER BEDROOM OFFERS HARDWOOD FLOORS AND A PRIVATE SALON BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS AND WALK IN SHOWER. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME, YOU WILL FIND 2 MORE ADDITIONAL BEDROOMS AND A FULL BATH. OUT BACK YOU WILL FIND A LARGE COVERED DECK THAT OVERLOOKS THE BACK YARD AND GOLF COURSE.

16. 1997-05-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,512 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,778/yr (+$148/mo · 242.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,813
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$1,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $4,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+79.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $318,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-24 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-02-11 Listed $177,500 MLSU
• 1997-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $734 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.