101 Countryplace Ln · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$151,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Other public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated town home close to everything Lynchburg has to offer! Large living and dining space with a lot of light from the sliding glass doors. Kitchen boasts new cabinets, Quartz counters and stainless steel appliances. Newly renovated half bath and laundry closet located on main level! Private patio off of the breakfast area to enjoy morning coffee! Upstairs features two bedrooms with large closets and an updated full bath. Two personal parking spaces in front of this townhome!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-319/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,131 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-28,315
• Equity at exit: $22,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-35,353
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $146,304

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Countryplace Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,350	$1.56	13d	1	0.01mi
89 Countryplace Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,025	$1.19	13d	1	0.05mi
42 Countryplace Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	882	$995	$1.13	13d	1	0.05mi
127 Primrose Ln Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,095	$1.05	21d	1	0.39mi
111 McConville Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,105	$1.21	13d	1	0.41mi
101 1/2 Hampden Dr Unit 4 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1040	$950	$0.91	21d	1	0.49mi
220 McConville Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1070	$990	$0.93	13d	6	0.56mi
412 Kerry Ln Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,108	$1.08	13d	12	0.64mi
307 Killarney Ct Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,035	$0.94	21d	1	0.75mi
302 Fleetwood Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	856	$995	$1.16	21d	1	0.87mi
1044 Ardmore Cir Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1052	$1,700	$1.62	21d	1	0.93mi
1400 Weeping Willow Dr Apt A Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,286	$1.28	13d	12	0.96mi
3101 Link Rd #96 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,200	$1.11	43d	1	1.29mi
4647 Ferncliff Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,800	$1.74	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $151,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $151,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $151,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $151,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+357.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $151,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-04 Sold (MLS) $130,000 LMLS
• 2025-03-22 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $135,000 LMLS
• 1986-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $32,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $976 · +35.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.