7407 Hoffman St · Houston, TX 77028

$185,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1949 10,201 sqft lot $161/sqft · 11% below area Est $209k · 11% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($841/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,736/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,503
• List price: $185,999
• Delta: -10.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5123 Denmark St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	5mo	$220,000	$184	74
7312 Wileyvale Rd Unit D	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,192 (+4%)	2mo	$199,000	$167	72
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit C	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,192 (+4%)	2mo	$199,000	$167	72
6905 Shotwell St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,226 (+6%)	7mo	$140,000	$114	70
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit A	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,192 (+4%)	5mo	$209,000	$175	69
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit E	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,192 (+4%)	6mo	$209,000	$175	68
5503 Finch St	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,034 (-10%)	6mo	$210,000	$203	63
7600 Wileyvale Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,062 (-8%)	9mo	$99,999	$94	63
7013 Kittridge St St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,199 (+4%)	11mo	$110,000	$92	60
7309 Wileyvale St Unit B	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,221 (+6%)	10mo	$209,000	$171	57
7311 Wileyvale Rd Unit A	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$199,000	$155	53
5017 Baton Rouge St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	5mo	$125,000	$116	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $44,898
• Equity at exit: $108,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $122,072
• Equity at exit: $189,047

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,977/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $185,999

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	43d	1	0.08mi
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	43d	1	0.40mi
6315 Sandra St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,399	$1.22	43d	1	0.66mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	43d	1	0.82mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	14d	1	0.83mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	0.90mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	24d	1	0.91mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	43d	1	0.94mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	43d	1	0.96mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	1.02mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	7d	1	1.17mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.17mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	5d	1	1.40mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	15d	1	1.42mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	43d	1	1.44mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,040	$1.41	7d	4	1.45mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0	780	$1,090	$1.40	19d	2	1.45mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,065	$1.44	15d	8	1.45mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	1.47mi
5414 Pardee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,999 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,999 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,999 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,999 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,999 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,999 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-03-23
   price $185,999
8. 2026-01-21
   listed $195,000 Active
9. 2013-11-01
   soldstatus
10. 2007-11-20
    soldstatus
11. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,977 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,404 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$2,977
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable loss: −$2,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$538
• After-tax cash flow: $1,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $185,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2013-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,977 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.