114 Wren Way · Mesquite, TX 75181

$256,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2025 4,400 sqft lot $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Watermill Collection brings modern and energy-efficient homes to the McKenzie Trails masterplan, coming soon to Balch Springs, TX. Residents will enjoy access to all available amenities within the masterplan, including a playground, dog park, picnic area and soccer fields. The community is just 20 minutes from downtown Dallas and boasts convenient proximity to the 635 and 175 highways for simple commutes and travel. Spend hours outdoors at the 5.2-acre Kyle Warren Park just over the Woodall Rodgers Freeway. Just minutes away is the Dallas Arboretum and Botanical Garden, a 66-acre botanical garden providing beautiful and scenic views.

Key facts

• Kyle warren park
• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOMES
• PROXIMITY TO HIGHWAYS
• KYLE WARREN PARK
• 66 ACRE BOTANICAL GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 598 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $227,544 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,669
• Equity at exit: $38,319

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-48,925
• Equity at exit: $22,221

Cash invested: $71,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $256,999

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $207	+0% $134	+5% $61	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $44	+0% $134	+5% $224	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $199	base $134	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,250
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	13d	1	0.64mi
222 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,775	$1.57	45d	1	0.69mi
4642 Elm Point Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,199	$1.05	7d	1	0.83mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	22d	1	0.96mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	9d	1	1.06mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	4d	1	1.10mi
12416 Fish Rd Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$2,011	$1.41	7d	1	1.16mi
14419 Briarcrest Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	45d	1	1.16mi
15115 Oakwood Ln Unit 1 Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,850	$1.68	45d	1	1.23mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	14d	1	1.28mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	26d	1	1.38mi
4320 Mohawk Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1110	$1,900	$1.71	26d	1	1.41mi
13131 Rocky Ledge Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,883	$1.20	4d	1	1.41mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	24d	1	1.41mi
4605 Navajo Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,795	$1.56	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-12
   listed $256,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,703 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,144/yr (+$262/mo · 201.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,396
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$2,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $2,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 26,455
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $256,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+60.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · +60.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.