123 Madrid · Tustin, CA 92780

$274,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 2005 18 ac lot $207/sqft · 25% above area Est $220k · 25% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This isn’t just a space, it’s where years of family dinners, celebrations, and everyday moments quietly built a life. Now, it’s ready for its next chapter. This double wide home offers an open layout that creates a natural flow between living spaces, making it easy to gather, host, and feel at home. One of the few in the community with a matchingjavascript:__doPostBack('m_lbValidate', '') storage shed, adding both function and convenience. Set within the heart of Tustin, you’re surrounded by a community known for its top rated schools, walkable neighborhoods, and a lifestyle that blends convenience with a true neighborhood feel. Just minutes from Old Town Tustin, loc

Key facts

• 17.94 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Villa Valencia Mobile Estates; Paved road access; Directions: Go into Villa Valencia community. Left on Madrid.
• HOA & community: Park land lease; Land lease approximately $1,755 monthly; Community features: biking, dog park, street lighting, sidewalks, park; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Villa Valencia Mobile Estates
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Water available; Sewer available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story; Front entry
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Mobile home dimensions approximately 264 by 56; Year built source: seller
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced pool; Community pool; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Microwave; Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; All bedrooms on one level; Primary suite with primary bathroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower in tub; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Storage space; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $274k).
• Recommended offer: $266k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 1.9% in Tustin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#215 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Tustin Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #91 of 517 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,780 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.40%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $274,000
• Delta: 24.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Malaga St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+13%)	3mo	$215,000	$143	73
104 Malaga #104	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-9%)	14mo	$250,000	$208	66
5 Granada	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+8%)	22mo	$340,000	$238	64
33 Madrid	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+9%)	19mo	$379,000	$261	64
107 Malaga	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	20mo	$202,000	$140	63
149 Granada #149	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	19mo	$260,000	$181	60
52 Malaga Ave #52	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+10%)	16mo	$275,000	$188	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $22,528
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $118,032
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92780

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $274,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2072 Cherokee Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1281	$3,995	$3.12	44d	1	0.29mi
13800 Parkcenter Ln Tustin, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	908	$3,845	$4.23	3d	15	0.35mi
1651 Mitchell Ave Apt B1 Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1120	$2,900	$2.59	44d	1	0.42mi
1651 Mitchell Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1120	$3,000	$2.68	7d	1	0.44mi
13582 Sweetshade Way Tustin, CA	3.0	2.5	1610	$4,250	$2.64	44d	1	0.51mi
13843 E Tustin Dr Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,141	$3.88	1d	22	0.53mi
1625 Birchfield Dr Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1810	$4,495	$2.48	24d	1	0.56mi
2131 Seminole Tustin, CA	3.0	2.5	1598	$4,350	$2.72	7d	1	0.57mi
14382 Red Hill Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	1175	$2,645	$2.25	3d	4	0.58mi
1361 El Camino Real Tustin, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1582	$4,260	$2.69	1d	3	0.70mi
1432 San Juan St Unit San Juan A3 Tustin, CA	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,795	$2.54	44d	1	0.71mi
14482 Grassmere Ln Tustin, CA	4.0	2.0	1535	$4,500	$2.93	7d	1	0.74mi
13405 Via Almeria Tustin, CA	3.0	3.0	1646	$4,500	$2.73	44d	1	0.75mi
1322 Walnut Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,125	$3.55	4d	6	0.84mi
1201 Walnut Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,892	$3.13	17d	2	0.91mi
2439 Paseo Circulo Tustin, CA	3.0	2.5	1507	$4,900	$3.25	44d	1	0.91mi
1192 Mitchell Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	974	$2,800	$2.87	7d	1	0.92mi
13381 Lummis Ct Tustin, CA	3.0	3.0	1213	$5,100	$4.20	44d	1	0.92mi
1220 Bryan Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$2,825	$3.32	44d	1	0.97mi
16000 Cambridge St Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1449	$4,618	$3.19	3d	3	1.01mi
13408 Heritage Way Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	850	$3,390	$3.99	3d	17	1.03mi
14300 Newport Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	943	$3,130	$3.32	2d	11	1.03mi
13202 Myford Rd Tustin, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1152	$4,235	$3.67	3d	7	1.06mi
13211 Myford Rd Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$3,390	$3.98	3d	12	1.06mi
2480 Irvine Blvd Tustin, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1199	$4,435	$3.70	2d	12	1.14mi
3000 Marketplace Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$7,780	$6.47	1d	157	1.14mi
1120 Sycamore Ave #1 Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,495	$2.69	24d	1	1.16mi
15722 S B St Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,050	$2.54	24d	1	1.17mi
15695 S B St Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,795	$2.79	44d	1	1.20mi
1000 Bryan Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$3,720	$5.51	1d	209	1.21mi
17272 Walnut Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,785	$3.71	3d	2	1.21mi
14841 Dove Tree Ct Tustin, CA	4.0	2.5	1553	$4,300	$2.77	21d	1	1.22mi
14841 Dove Tree Ct Tustin, CA	4.0	2.5	1553	$4,300	$2.77	19d	1	1.22mi
17200 McFadden Ave Unit 06A Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1230	$3,195	$2.60	24d	1	1.24mi
1414 Montgomery St Tustin, CA	3.0	3.0	1827	$4,400	$2.41	24d	1	1.25mi
14802 Newport Ave Unit 5A Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1258	$3,000	$2.38	3d	1	1.25mi
100 Las Palmas Dr Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$3,345	$4.49	3d	50	1.27mi
2354 Sunningdale Dr Tustin, CA	3.0	2.5	1350	$4,200	$3.11	44d	1	1.29mi
15991 Bliss Ln Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	990	$2,900	$2.93	22d	1	1.31mi
17062 Altadena Dr., 15991 & 16001 Pasadena AVE Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	990	$2,900	$2.93	15d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $274,000 Active 851-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    historical $274,000 851-char remark
17. 2026-01-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-16
    price $298,000
19. 2025-09-12
    status Active
20. 2025-07-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,498
• − Management: −$3,498
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable income: $7,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,902
• After-tax cash flow: $9,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tustin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640150
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $81,864
• Composite: 50.32/100
• National rank: #1880
• State rank: #91 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tustin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #6806

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tustin, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 84,447
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,374
• Household income: $101,017
• Rent vs Own: 55.9% rent · 44.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3031.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 27% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -924.13%
• Current HPI: 482.9143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $274,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $274,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $298,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Coming Soon — CRMLS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $368 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.