1593 Deerfield Rd · Water Mill, NY 11976

$14,995,000

8 bd · 11.0 ba · 9,000 sqft · Land · 317 Days on market

Built 2025 9.09 ac lot $1666/sqft · 134% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The price listed ($14,995,000) is for the Land, Pool, Pool House, and Tennis Court when the house is completely constructed. Perhaps one of the most coveted locations in the Hamptons because of its centrally located positioning amidst the horse and farm fields of Watermill, its proximity to the ocean beach and attractions like yachting in Sag Harbor, golfing in Bridgehampton, and its elevation offering ocean and bay views from the roof deck. Add an extremely rare large piece of property (9 acres) that is adjacent to a conservation easement and surrounded by very large estate-sized parcels with magnificent luxury homes. Plans and permits already in place for a 12,500 sf Traditional home on three levels with 8 bedrooms and 10 bathrooms, a roof deck for water and sunset views, a large pool, jacuzzi, pool house, and tennis court. The owner of the property offering, Rosewood Developers, is known in the industry as a builder of extremely high quality and distinction - with over 45 years of history building some of the most beautiful and sturdiest homes in the Hamptons and Long Island. Rosewood has a newly finished 6000 sf house in Southampton for sale or rent that you can move into right now while this 12,500 masterpiece home is being constructed. This 12,500 magnificent home will be perfectly matched to complement the majestic 9 acre elevated property that even has first floor winter ocean views and will also have summer ocean views from the planned roof deck. The house will have every conceivable amenity deserving of the spectacular 9 acre landscape. Close to everything, this home will provide easy access to the ocean, the Sag Harbor marinas, the Bridgehampton Golf Courses, and of course the village restaurants in Southampton, Bridgehampton, Sag Harbor and East Hampton.

Key facts

• Large pool
• 9.09 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• PROXIMITY TO OCEAN BEACH
• ELEVATION OFFERING OCEAN VIEWS
• LARGE PIECE OF PROPERTY
• SITE AND BUILDING PLANS
• ROOF DECK FOR WATER VIEWS
• LARGE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/11.0-bath land listed at $14.99M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57k ($-688k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $6.70M (55.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $5.86M (60.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $5.86M (60.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $58,571/mo this rent would consume 390% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1.40M of equity ($104k loan paydown + $1.29M appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$2.24M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($13.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 355% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $2.67M; list at $14.99M implies a 461% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,857,102 (60.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.39%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 21.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $6,398,581
• List price: $14,995,000
• Delta: 134.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $3,445,207
• Equity at exit: $12,041,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $13,540,935
• Equity at exit: $24,550,679

Cash invested: $4,198,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $58,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78,635
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$18,744 /mo · $224,925/yr
• Insurance: −$6,248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,300
• Net cashflow: $-57,356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131,174

Max offer price $6,695,501

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,748,750
• Closing costs: $449,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $14,995,000 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $14,995,000 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $14,995,000 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,995,000 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,995,000 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,995,000 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $14,995,000 1799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1799 chars)

    The price listed ($14,995,000) is for the Land, Pool, Pool House, and Tennis Court when the house is completely constructed. Perhaps one of the most coveted locations in the Hamptons because of its centrally located positioning amidst the horse and farm fields of Watermill, its proximity to the ocean beach and attractions like yachting in Sag Harbor, golfing in Bridgehampton, and its elevation offering ocean and bay views from the roof deck. Add an extremely rare large piece of property (9 acres) that is adjacent to a conservation easement and surrounded by very large estate-sized parcels with magnificent luxury homes. Plans and permits already in place for a 12,500 sf Traditional home on three levels with 8 bedrooms and 10 bathrooms, a roof deck for water and sunset views, a large pool, jacuzzi, pool house, and tennis court. The owner of the property offering, Rosewood Developers, is known in the industry as a builder of extremely high quality and distinction - with over 45 years of history building some of the most beautiful and sturdiest homes in the Hamptons and Long Island. Rosewood has a newly finished 6000 sf house in Southampton for sale or rent that you can move into right now while this 12,500 masterpiece home is being constructed. This 12,500 magnificent home will be perfectly matched to complement the majestic 9 acre elevated property that even has first floor winter ocean views and will also have summer ocean views from the planned roof deck. The house will have every conceivable amenity deserving of the spectacular 9 acre landscape. Close to everything, this home will provide easy access to the ocean, the Sag Harbor marinas, the Bridgehampton Golf Courses, and of course the village restaurants in Southampton, Bridgehampton, Sag Harbor and East Hampton.

16. 2025-09-05
    price $3,495,000 1101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1101 chars)

    The price listed ($3,495,000) is for Land and Building/Site Plans only. Perhaps one of the most coveted locations in the Hamptons because of its centrally located positioning amidst the horse and farm fields of Watermill, its proximity to the ocean beach and attractions like yachting in Sag Harbor, golfing in Bridgehampton, and its elevation offering ocean and bay views from the roof deck. Add an extremely rare large piece of property (9 acres) that is adjacent to a conservation easement and surrounded by very large estate-sized parcels with magnificent luxury homes. Plans already exist for a 9000 sf transitional home on four levels with 8 bedrooms and 10 bathrooms, a roof deck for water and sunset views, a large pool, jacuzzi, pool house, and tennis court. The owner of the property offering, Rosewood Developers, is known in the industry as a builder of extremely high quality and distinction - with over 45 years of history building some of the most beautiful and sturdiest homes in the Hamptons and Long Island. The price for the Land, Pool, Pool House, and Tennis Court is $12,995,000.

17. 2025-08-05
    listed $12,995,000 Active 1799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1101 chars)

    The price listed ($3,495,000) is for Land and Building/Site Plans only. Perhaps one of the most coveted locations in the Hamptons because of its centrally located positioning amidst the horse and farm fields of Watermill, its proximity to the ocean beach and attractions like yachting in Sag Harbor, golfing in Bridgehampton, and its elevation offering ocean and bay views from the roof deck. Add an extremely rare large piece of property (9 acres) that is adjacent to a conservation easement and surrounded by very large estate-sized parcels with magnificent luxury homes. Plans already exist for a 9000 sf transitional home on four levels with 8 bedrooms and 10 bathrooms, a roof deck for water and sunset views, a large pool, jacuzzi, pool house, and tennis court. The owner of the property offering, Rosewood Developers, is known in the industry as a builder of extremely high quality and distinction - with over 45 years of history building some of the most beautiful and sturdiest homes in the Hamptons and Long Island. The price for the Land, Pool, Pool House, and Tennis Court is $12,995,000.

18. 2025-08-05
    listed $3,295,000 Active 1101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1101 chars)

    The price listed ($3,495,000) is for Land and Building/Site Plans only. Perhaps one of the most coveted locations in the Hamptons because of its centrally located positioning amidst the horse and farm fields of Watermill, its proximity to the ocean beach and attractions like yachting in Sag Harbor, golfing in Bridgehampton, and its elevation offering ocean and bay views from the roof deck. Add an extremely rare large piece of property (9 acres) that is adjacent to a conservation easement and surrounded by very large estate-sized parcels with magnificent luxury homes. Plans already exist for a 9000 sf transitional home on four levels with 8 bedrooms and 10 bathrooms, a roof deck for water and sunset views, a large pool, jacuzzi, pool house, and tennis court. The owner of the property offering, Rosewood Developers, is known in the industry as a builder of extremely high quality and distinction - with over 45 years of history building some of the most beautiful and sturdiest homes in the Hamptons and Long Island. The price for the Land, Pool, Pool House, and Tennis Court is $12,995,000.

19. 2007-09-14
    soldstatus $2,675,000
20. 1996-10-18
    soldstatus $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $702,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$839,953
• − Property taxes: −$224,925
• − Insurance: −$74,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$56,228
• − Management: −$56,228
• − Depreciation: −$436,218
• Taxable loss: −$985,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$236,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-451,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6147.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $14,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $3,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $12,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $2,675,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,424 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.