9 Oak Dr Unit OA09 · Hamlin, NY 14464

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $74/sqft · 120% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find Comfort in This Large, Thoughtfully-Designed Home!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 95 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.1% in Hamlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#557 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Brockport Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #369 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.23%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,952
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 119.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Oak Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	20mo	$107,000	$88	82
97 Locust Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+3%)	8mo	$64,000	$51	77
29 Chestnut Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-6%)	10mo	$37,900	$33	67
306 Sandy Brook Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-2%)	13mo	$40,000	$34	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $5,800
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $31,328
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14464

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $351	+0% $320	+5% $288	+10% $257
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $272	+0% $320	+5% $367	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $342	base $320	+0.5pp $296	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-04-18
   status Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Find Comfort in This Large, Thoughtfully-Designed Home!

6. 2026-04-17
   historical 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Find Comfort in This Large, Thoughtfully-Designed Home!

7. 2026-03-06
   status Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Find Comfort in This Large, Thoughtfully-Designed Home!

8. 2026-03-06
   historical 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Find Comfort in This Large, Thoughtfully-Designed Home!

9. 2026-02-26
   listed $89,900 Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Find Comfort in This Large, Thoughtfully-Designed Home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $3,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with good exterior and interior walls. It has a good roof and flooring, but could benefit from some landscaping and exterior painting to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping could use some updates to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · The landscaping could use some updates to enhance curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brockport Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605580
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,571
• Composite: 43.28/100
• National rank: #3044
• State rank: #369 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hamlin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #10030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamlin, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,725

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.89%
• Current HPI: 248.1985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Listed $89,900 Zillow