1818 Nuthatch Rdg · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$196,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Townhouse · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $156/sqft · 20% below area Est $245k · 20% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($137/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1932 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,831 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,958
• List price: $196,999
• Delta: -19.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,358
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-50,673
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1932
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,955/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $196,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $80	+0% $11	+5% $-57	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-59	+0% $11	+5% $82	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $62	base $11	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	44d	1	0.03mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	5d	1	0.13mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	2d	1	0.20mi
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	12d	1	0.23mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	44d	1	0.31mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	44d	1	0.38mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	44d	1	0.38mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	44d	1	0.40mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	5d	1	0.41mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	2d	1	0.41mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	5d	1	0.43mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	25d	1	0.44mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	0.44mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	16d	1	0.47mi
2575 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,499	$1.09	44d	1	0.47mi
2564 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	5d	1	0.47mi
2562 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	5d	1	0.48mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	17d	1	0.51mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.57mi
2842 Ridge Berry Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	0.69mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	44d	1	0.72mi
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	19d	1	0.75mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	16d	1	0.75mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.76mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	44d	1	0.84mi
1915 Chiffchaff New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,650	$1.36	25d	1	0.84mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$1,847	$1.21	2d	131	0.86mi
1320 Atticus Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1702	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.87mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	44d	1	0.88mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	25d	1	0.88mi
1041 Lauren St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	25d	1	0.88mi
4262 Winston Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.89mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	44d	1	0.89mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	44d	1	0.89mi
1211 Foxglove St New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	1329	$1,525	$1.15	25d	1	0.96mi
1337 Lauren St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,245	$1.25	17d	1	0.96mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	17d	1	0.97mi
1911 Kallijo Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	17d	1	0.98mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	25d	1	1.00mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	44d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $196,999 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $196,999 Price Change 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $196,999 Price Change 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $196,999 Price Change 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   status $196,999 Pending 51 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $196,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-05-07
   price $196,999 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-05-07
   price $196,999 638-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-04-30
   price $201,999 638-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-04-29
    price $201,999 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

11. 2026-04-28
    price $211,999 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-04-28
    price $211,999 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-04-22
    listed $216,999 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

14. 2026-04-21
    price $216,999 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2026-04-17
    price $221,999 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $213,999 New 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$2,955
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$3,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is move-in ready with a good condition score and a fresh exterior paint job would further enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal.
• Resale Paint interior walls — Neutral paint colors are timeless and attractive.
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve aesthetics and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Neutral paint colors are timeless and attractive. ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve aesthetics and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $196,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $196,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $201,999 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $201,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $211,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $211,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Listed $216,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $216,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $221,999 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Listed $213,999 LERA